EUR/USD rises to retest the rising channel base, now initial resistance at $1.3504. Daily studies have turned bullish and a break above initial res could accelerate gains up to the 21-DMA at $1.3601 meeting resistance around $1.3548, the Nov 66 high, along the way. However, monthly studies are weaker and failure to regain the channel adds downside pressure while cautioning bulls, initial support is the Nov 12 high at $1.3456
R 4: $1.3598/3601 High Oct 14, 21-DMA
R 3: $1.3548/54 High Nov 6, Former 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3832
R 2: $1.3524/29 Highs Nov 4, 7
R 1: $1.3504 Channel base from Jul 10 low
Latest price: $1.3472
S 1: $1.3452/56 Reversal high Aug 20, High Nov 12
S 2: $1.3433 5-day moving average
S 3: $1.3400 High Aug 8
S 4: $1.3383 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3832
GBP/USD swung back to the upside to follow monthly studies higher but was capped by resistance at the 21-DMA – now initial res at $1.6078. A break above here could start a move to retest the highs around $1.6260, however weekly studies look a little overbought and failure to break above the Nov 6 high at $1.6118 would add downside pressure. Below $1.6118 still has a chance to form the right shoulder of a H&S pattern, neckline seen at $1.5821.
R 4: $1.6203 High Sept 30
R 3: $1.6163 High Sept 18
R 2: $1.6118 High Nov 6
R 1: $1.6078 21-day moving average
Latest price: $1.6037
S 1: $1.5999/6001 Low Oct 30, 5-DMA
S 2: $1.5983 55-day moving average
S 3: $1.5943 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
S 4: $1.5901/04 Daily Bolli band base, Low Nov 4
USD/JPY now ranging just above the 61.8% of Y100.61-96.57 at Y99.07 and below the high of Nov 12 at Y99.80. A close above the 76.4% level at Y99.66 could see bulls retest resistance around Y100.00 while weekly slow stochastic reverses higher. However, daily and monthly studies look overbought and upside moves could run out of steam – key support below the former 61.8% level is at Y98.71 – the daily Tenkan line and below here at Y98.65 – 100-DMA
R 4: Y100.87 High Jul 19 & Weekly Bolli top
R 3: Y100.61 High Sept 11
R 2: Y99.94/99 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79, High Sept 12
R 1: Y99.74 Daily Bolli top, 50.0% of Y124.14-75.35
Latest price: Y99.60
S 1: Y99.07/11 Former 61.8% of Y100.61-96.57, Lows Nov 12&13
S 2: Y98.71/76 Daily Tenkan line, High Nov 6
S 3: Y98.56/65 55 and 100-day moving averages
S 4: Y98.12/21 Daily Ichimoku cloud base and top
EUR/JPY left a long lower shadow yesterday which bounced from support around daily Kijun at Y133.36 – while the rebound helped send daily studies sharply higher. Bulls look to pressure res and current price action is capped by Jan 2010 reversal high at Y134.38, break above sees bulls retesting highs around Y135.51 where strong resistance is expected. However, mthly studies still bearish and overbought, upside moves are expected to be short-lived.
R 4: Y135.51 High Oct 22
R 3: Y135.35/36 Weekly Bolli top, Monthly Ichimoku top
R 2: Y134.95/99 High Sept 19, High Oct 29
R 1: Y134.38 Jan 2010 reversal high
Latest price: Y134.11
S 1: Y133.68 High Nov 1
S 2: Y133.36 Daily Kijun line
S 3: Y132.85/97 Jun 13 support line, 55-DMA
S 4: Y132.37 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
