EUR/USD bounced from the 100-DMA to retest resistance around $1.3452/53, the Aug 20 reversal high and hourly high. A break above here targets the key 55-DMA and rising channel base at $1.3488/96. Daily studies are attempting to reverse higher, a move above the $1.3550 level confirms the uptrend. However, weekly/monthly studies look bearish so any rally is likely to be short-lived – bears look to close below 100-DMA at $1.3356 to thwart bulls.
R 4: $1.3524/29 Highs Nov 4, 7
R 3: $1.3488/96 55-DMA, Channel base from Jul 10 low
R 2: $1.3469 Former 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
R 1: $1.3452/53 Reversal high Aug 20, Hourly high
Latest price: $1.3443
S 1: $1.3415 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.3400 High Aug 8
S 3: $1.3383 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 4: $1.3356 100-day moving average
GBP/USD pushed lower, testing the daily Bolli band base before bouncing from just above the 50.0% of $1.5429-1.6260. Daily/weekly studies are mostly bearish, move lower retests the daily Bolli base at $1.5866 and below here is key 50.0% at $1.5845. A potential H&S pattern is forming, albeit a weak pattern as neckline is descending and the right shoulder is lower. Nevertheless, a break below the neckline at $1.5825 could see a measured move to $1.5445.
R 4: $1.5999 Low Oct 30
R 3: $1.5970/80 55-DMA, 5-DMA
R 2: $1.5943 Former 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
R 1: $1.5904 Low Nov 4
Latest price: $1.5892
S 1: $1.5866 Daily Bollinger band base
S 2: $1.5845/55 50.0% of $1.5429-1.6260, Low Nov 12
S 3: $1.5805 Low Feb 5
S 4: $1.5746/52 61.8% $1.5429-1.6260, Reversal high Jun 17
USD/JPY retraces a little of yesterday’s move while daily slow stochastic study enters overbought territory. 10-day momentum is a little lower and monthly studies still point south – if bulls fail to close above 76.4% of Y96.57-Y100.61 and yesterday’s high (at Y99.66/80) we could see bears resume control. Key support around Y98.71/76, daily Tenkan and Nov 6 high, but we note weekly slow stochastic reversing higher which could threaten the Y100.00 area
R 4: Y100.87 High Jul 19 & Weekly Bolli top
R 3: Y100.61 High Sept 11
R 2: Y99.94/99 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79, High Sept 12
R 1: Y99.66/67 76.4% of Y100.61-96.57, Hourly high
Latest price: Y99.52
S 1: Y99.41/43 High Nov 7, Hourly low
S 2: Y99.07 Former 61.8% of Y100.61-96.57
S 3: Y98.71/76 Daily Tenkan line, High Nov 6
S 4: Y98.54/64 55 and 100-day moving averages
EUR/JPY met resistance around Y134.00 level yesterday and today, bulls aim to break above while daily studies rise but monthly/weekly studies remain bearish. Failure at Y134.00 again adds downside pressure and may see bears retest support line from Jun 13, now at Y132.78. A break below would threaten the daily Ichimoku top at Y132.40, however another failure to sustain a break below the Jun 13 suppt line will see bulls look to retest Y135.51
R 4: Y135.28/36 Weekly Bolli top, Monthly Ichimoku top
R 3: Y134.95/99 High Sept 19, High Oct 29
R 2: Y134.38 Jan 2010 reversal high
R 1: Y134.00/01 High Sept 24, High Nov 12
Latest price: Y133.75
S 1: Y133.33/36 50.0% Y131.15-135.51, Daily Kijun
S 2: Y132.82 55-DMA & 61.8% of Y131.15-135.51
S 3: Y132.78 Support line from Jun 13
S 4: Y132.40 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
