EUR/USD: The move lower Thursday was followed up by an inside day and a relatively bearish close to end last week. The $1.3450 level confirmed its significance on Friday with the pair remaining capped at this level. A close above remains needed to ease the immediate bullish focus with pressure expected to remain on the $1.3294-95 region and a close below seeing focus ratchet lower to the $1.3106 Sept monthly low. Oversold daily tech studies should be noted.
R 4: $1.3598 High Oct 14
R 3: $1.3545/54 High Nov 6, Former 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3832
R 2: $1.3524 Hourly high & High Nov 4
R 1: $1.3450 NY Hourly high Nov 7
Latest price: $1.3357
S 1: $1.3294/95 50.0% of 1.2760-1.3829, Low Nov 7
S 2: $1.3232 Low Sept 10
S 3: $1.3216 200 day moving average
S 4: $1.3168 61.8% of 1.2760-1.3829
GBP/USD: The key $1.6118 level capped attempts higher before the pair headed lower once more, pausing at the 55-DMA. A close above the $1.6118 level remains needed to see focus return to retests of the key $1.6260 level. The move lower has eased the previous bullish pressure and seen immediate focus shift to retests of the $1.5885-1.5905 support region but oversold correcting daily tech studies should be noted and may limit bearish follow through.
R 4: $1.6206 Channel base Jul 3
R 3: $1.6163 High Sept 18
R 2: $1.6118 High Nov 6
R 1: $1.6060 Hourly breakdown level Nov 8
Latest price: $1.6011
S 1: $1.5943/57 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260, 55-DMA
S 2: $1.5904/19 Low Nov 4, 23.6% of $1.4814-1.626
S 3: $1.5778 Low Sept 13
S 4: $1.5672 100 day moving average
USD/JPY: Following last week’s dip back to the 200-DMA dollar-yen bounce to end the week just below last week’s highs. A close above the Sept 20 high is needed to confirm a clean break of the falling daily trend line off the May 22 highs and see focus turn to layers of resistance in the Y100.59-86 region. We will continue to look for a close below the Nov 7 Low to confirm a clean break of the 200-DMA with a subsequent shift lower in focus.
R 4: Y100.59 Highs Sept 11
R 3: Y99.65 High Sept 20
R 2: Y99.41 Highs Nov 7
R 1: Y99.30 Daily Bollinger band top
Latest price: Y98.95
S 1: Y98.61/77 100-DMA, Hourly breakout level Nov 8
S 2: Y97.70/78 Low Nov 7, 200-DMA
S 3: Y97.37 Rising daily trend line
S 4: Y96.96 Low Oct 25
EUR/JPY: Friday’s bounce remained capped ahead of the 55-DMA but we will continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to relieve the current focus from further tests and a break of the Y131.16 level, and back to tests of the Y135.49 Oct monthly high. A close below the Y131.16 level would see focus ratchet lower to the Y129.23-38 region with the 200-DMA noted at Y129.23. The pair has not closed below the 200-DMA since Nov 2012.
R 4: Y135.49 High Oct 22
R 3: Y133.71/80 21-DMA, May 22 reversal high
R 2: Y133.36 Daily Tenkan line
R 1: Y132.73 55 day moving average
Latest price: Y132.26
S 1: Y131.16 Monthly Low Oct 8
S 2: Y129.97 Low Sept 6
S 3: Y129.38.Low Aug 30
S 4: Y129.23 200 day moving average
