EUR/USD posts a huge black candle to close the month, sliding through support to close just above the 38.2% at $1.3554, however price action today already slipped below. Daily studies are in sell-mode while weekly studies look likely to reverse lower, a close here or below would also setup a bearish engulfing candle pattern on the weekly chart. Next key support seen at $1.3435, the Jul 10 support line, below here is the Jul 2012 suppt line around $1.3222.
R 4: $1.3681/82 Reversal high Apr 2007, High Oct 17
R 3: $1.3644/46 21-DMA, High Oct 3
R 2: $1.3631 Former Support line from Sept 6
R 1: $1.3598 High Oct 14
Latest price: $1.3555
S 1: $1.3539/40 Low Oct 4, Hourly low
S 2: $1.3501 Low Sept 19
S 3: $1.3469/77 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832, 55-DMA
S 4: $1.3429/35 Support line Jul 10, Daily Bolli base
GBP/USD seen as bearish but struggling to break below $1.6000 level following the downside channel breakout which should target a measured move to just below $1.5900. However, continued failure to break lower will encourage bears and likely target a retest of channel base at $1.6142. But daily studies remain bearish and a close below initial support should then test $1.5943, the 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260, followed by $1.5919, the 23.6% of $1.4814-1.6260.
R 4: $1.6203 High Sept 30
R 3: $1.6142/45 Channel base Jul 3, High Oct 29
R 2: $1.6074 21-day moving average
R 1: $1.6060/64 5-DMA, 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260
Latest price: $1.6028
S 1: $1.6002 High Oct 11
S 2: $1.5943 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
S 3: $1.5914/19 55-DMA, 23.6% of $1.4814-1.6260
S 4: $1.5897/5900 Daily Bolli base, Channel breakout target
USD/JPY descends from the daily Ichimoku cloud again to retest support around Y97.81 – the daily Tenkan and Kijun lines, also the hourly low. Bears look to break below this level despite the slightly bullish daily studies, next support at Y97.56, the 200-DMA. Mthly/wkly studies are bearish but dol/yen needs to break below Apr 2 support line at Y96.16 to confirm a downtrend. However, failure to break below could see bulls retest Ichimoku cloud base.
R 4: Y99.07 61.8% of Y100.61-96.57
R 3: Y98.71 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
R 2: Y98.57 Redrawn resistance line from Sept 11 high
R 1: Y98.39 100-day moving average
Latest price: Y97.94
S 1: Y97.81 Daily Tenkan & Daily Kijun
S 2: Y97.52/56 23.6% of Y100.61-96.57, 200-DMA
S 3: Y96.89/91 Aug 8 support line, Low Aug 20
S 4: Y96.57 Low Oct 8
EUR/JPY descends back toward the daily Ichimoku cloud and already tested below the cloud top which is former support at Y132.77. Daily studies are sharply lower and further losses sees bears test Jun 13 support line at Y132.21, just above 76.4% of Y131.15-135.51 at Y132.18, which should provide strong support. A break below likely confirms a bearish trend and could send weekly studies lower, however bulls will aim to remain above to retest the Oct 22 high.
R 4: Y134.38 Jan 2010 reversal high
R 3: Y134.05/06 76.4% of Y134.95-131.15, Daily Tenkan line
R 2: Y133.80/84 May 22 reversal high, 38.2% Y131.15-135.51
R 1: Y133.68 Hourly high
Latest price: Y132.79
S 1: Y132.58 55-day moving average
S 2: Y132.18/21 76.4% of Y131.15-135.51, Support line Jun 13
S 3: Y131.46 Daily Ichimoku cloud base
S 4: Y131.12/15 21-week MA, Low Oct 8
