EUR/USD failed to test $1.3832 and now closed back below $1.3800, which suggests upside risk weakened. Daily studies may be reversing lower, another down-day could see them confirm sell-signals. Bears will be looking to descend to the 23.6% of $1.3105-3832, further support at $1.3660, and a close below here could see bears test a Sept 6 support line around $1.3600. However, monthly studies rise and break above $1.3800 threatens $1.3832 again.
R 4: $1.3938 2% 15-DMA Envelope top
R 3: $1.3850/52 Daily Bolli band top, High Jul 2007
R 2: $1.3832/35 High Oct 28, Weekly Bolli band top
R 1: $1.3793/94 High Oct 23, Hourly high
Latest price: $1.3776
S 1: $1.3742 Low Oct 23
S 2: $1.3711 Reversal high Jan 2013
S 3: $1.3681/82 Reversal high Apr 2007, High Oct 17
S 4: $1.3660 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3832
GBP/USD moves lower and looks to push below channel base and also the 21-DMA, seen at $1.6094/99, respectively however cable already tested below to the 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260 at $1.6064. Bears now look to break below this level while daily studies reverse to the downside, a close below the channel could target a measured move to $1.5900 which is around the daily Bolli band base. Despite this, bulls still look to retest $1.6260 and remain within the channel. RES 4: $1.6290/96 Daily Bolli band top, Channel top from Jul 3
R 3: $1.6260 High Oct 1
R 2: $1.6203 High Sept 30
R 1: $1.6158 5-DMA
Latest price: $1.6103
S 1: $1.6064/65 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260, Hourly low
S 2: $1.6002 High Oct 11
S 3: $1.5943 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
S 4: $1.5919 23.6% of $1.4814-1.6260
USD/JPY moves back toward the 200-DMA which becomes key initial support once more. Studies are mixed, daily studies slow their descent while weekly/monthly studies are still bearish. A break below 200-DMA at Y97.44 likely targets the Oct 8 low at Y96.57 but if the 200-DMA holds we could see bulls attempt a retest of the daily Ichimoku cloud base which is at Y98.34 and joined by 55-DMA at the same level and 100-DMA at Y98.37 – a key resistance level.
R 4: Y98.34/37 55-DMA & Daily Ichimoku base, 100-DMA
R 3: Y98.11 38.2% of Y100.61-96.57
R 2: Y97.98/98.00 Daily Tenkan line, Low Oct 15
R 1: Y97.72/74 Hourly high, 21-DMA
Latest price: Y97.53
S 1: Y97.44 200-DMA
S 2: Y97.16 Low Oct 23
S 3: Y96.91/94 Low Aug 20, Low Oct 25
S 4: Y96.57/66 Low Oct 8, Daily Bollinger band base
EUR/JPY attempted to make some gains yesterday but instead left a doji with long upper shadow, adding downside pressure. However, daily studies show a little strength and failure to break below support could see bulls return to retest Y135.51, Oct 22 reversal high. Ahead of here, key initial res around Y134.95/99, highs of Sept 19 and Oct 29. But failure here again likely sees bears take control and possibly slide to daily Ichimoku cloud top at Y132.70.
R 4: Y135.95 Monthly Ichimoku cloud top
R 3: Y135.81 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 2: Y135.51/54 High Oct 22, Daily Bolli band top
R 1: Y134.95/99 High Sept 19, High Oct 29
Latest price: Y134.50
S 1: Y134.19 High Oct 18
S 2: Y133.80/84 May 22 reversal high, 38.2% Y131.15-135.51
S 3: Y133.33 Daily Kijun line, 50.0% Y131.15-135.51
S 4: Y132.82 61.8% Y131.15-135.51
