EUR/USD left another higher high but this time closed back around $1.3800 to leave a doji while overbought daily studies weaken. Weekly studies are also overbought adding pressure to the downside, a close back below $1.3800 adds further weight lower, initial support is at $1.3792893, 5-DMA and Oct 23 high. Below here next key support at $1.3711, Jan 2013 reversal high. However, bulls may look to rebreak the daily Bolli top – initial res at $1.3837.
R 4: $1.3958 50.0% of $1.6038-1.1877
R 3: $1.3925 2% 15-DMA Envelope top
R 2: $1.3852 High Jul 2007
R 1: $1.3832/37 High Oct 28, Daily Bolli band top
Latest price: $1.3802
S 1: $1.3792/93 5-DMA, High Oct 23
S 2: $1.3711 Reversal high Jan 2013
S 3: $1.3681/82 Reversal high Apr 2007, High Oct 17
S 4: $1.3660 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3832
GBP/USD now back below $1.6200 but bulls already testing initial resistance – seen as the 5-DMA at $1.6189, just below hourly high at $1.6190. A break above then targets $1.6260 to see if bulls can break above the Oct 1 high. But further failure higher means bears could wrest control – dly studies appear to be slipping and bears could target a test of 21-DMA at $1.6104 and below here is channel base at $1.6078, a break below could reverse the uptrend.
R 4: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
R 3: $1.6284 Channel top from Jul 3
R 2: $1.6260 High Oct 1
R 1: $1.6189/90 5-DMA, Hourly high
Latest price: $1.6177
S 1: $1.6120/22 Low Oct 23, High Oct 9
S 2: $1.6104 21-DMA
S 3: $1.6064/78 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260, Channel base Jul 3
S 4: $1.6011 76.4% of $1.6381-1.4814
USD/JPY closed back above the 200-DMA after closing below, however still seen as initial support at Y97.39. Daily studies appear less bearish but weekly and monthly studies still slide, bulls currently testing initial resistance at Y97.77/79 – 21-DMA and hourly high. Break above targets dly Ichimoku cloud base at Y98.34, also 55-DMA and 100-DMA at Y98.35, but failure at res could see bears retest 200-DMA and target Oct 8 low at Y96.57.
R 4: Y98.34/35 55-DMA & Daily Ichimoku base, 100-DMA
R 3: Y98.11 38.2% of Y100.61-96.57
R 2: Y97.98/98.00 Daily Tenkan line, Low Oct 15
R 1: Y97.77/79 21-DMA, Hourly high
Latest price: Y97.60
S 1: Y97.39 200-DMA
S 2: Y97.16 Low Oct 23
S 3: Y96.91/94 Low Aug 20, Low Oct 25
S 4: Y96.57/67 Low Oct 8, Daily Bollinger band base
EUR/JPY moves back toward the daily Bollinger band top at Y135.42 and the Oct 22 reversal high at Y135.51, however studies remain overbought. Failure to retest the hourly high at Y134.99 and break above would likely add further pressure lower after the bearish engulfing candle from Oct 23. But if bulls push above Y135.51 we expect a test of the monthly Ichimoku cloud top at Y135.95 – a break and close above targets Y140.99 – the 61.8% of Y187.86-94.12
R 4: Y135.95 Monthly Ichimoku cloud top
R 3: Y135.51/57 High Oct 22, Apr 2009 reversal high
R 2: Y135.42 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y134.95/99 High Sept 19, Hourly high
Latest price: Y134.76
S 1: Y134.48 Former 23.6% of Y131.15-135.51
S 2: Y134.13/19 Daily Tenkan line, High Oct 18
S 3: Y133.80/84 May 22 reversal high, 38.2% Y131.15-135.51
S 4: Y133.33 Daily Kijun line, 50.0% Y131.15-135.51
