EUR/USD bounced from the daily Bolli base yesterday, now seen as key support at $1.3471. Daily studies are bearish but show signs of slowing, weekly studies appear to be reversing lower, risk to the downside remains but support around $1.3471-86 continues to hold and further failure to break the downside could open the topside to bulls. Initial resistance now at $1.3569/71, the highs of Sept 19, Oct 15 and above is the daily Bolli top at $1.3602.
R 4: $1.3681 Reversal high Apr 2007
R 3: $1.3646 High Oct 3
R 2: $1.3598/3602 High Oct 14, Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.3569/71 Highs Sept 19, Oct 15
Latest price: $1.3541
S 1: $1.3516/18 Hourly low, 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3646
S 2: $1.3471 Daily Bollinger band base
S 3: $1.3439 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3646
S 4: $1.3392 55-day moving average
GBP/USD tests both support and resistance after bulls tested the 21-DMA, now at $1.6052 – and bears attempted a break below dly Bolli base, still support at $1.5884. Studies are mixed, dailies look likely to reverse higher while RSI failed to slip below 50 – however wkly studies are reversing in overbought territory. A break and close below the channel – base is at $1.5966, targets $1.5700 while bulls look to break above $1.6050 to test $1.6260.
R 4: $1.6124 High Oct 8
R 3: $1.6100 High Oct 7
R 2: $1.6052 21-day moving average
R 1: $1.6002 High Oct 11
Latest price: $1.5978
S 1: $1.5940/43 Hourly low, 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
S 2: $1.5919 23.6% of $1.4814-1.6260
S 3: $1.5885 Daily Bollinger band base
S 4: $1.5845 50.0% of $1.5429-1.6260
USD/JPY broke higher yesterday and today before bears pared gains, current price action holds around the 100-DMA which is initial support at 98.44. A sustained break below here runs into a number of support levels, seen from daily Kijun line and 55-DMA at Y98.28/31, followed by 21-DMA at Y98.19 and then the Oct 15 low at Y98.00. However, daily studies are still bullish, bulls may try to retest 61.8% level at Y99.07 as channel break still targets Y100.05.
R 4: Y100.04/05 Monthly Ichimoku cloud top, Channel break target
R 3: Y99.66/70 76.4% of Y100.61-96.57, Daily Bolli top
R 2: Y99.36 High Sept 23
R 1: Y99.01/07 Hourly high, 61.8% of Y100.61-96.57
Latest price: Y98.45
S 1: Y98.28/31 Daily Kijun line, 55-DMA
S 2: Y98.00 Low Oct 15
S 3: Y97.79 Daily Tenkan
S 4: Y97.10 200-day moving average
EUR/JPY ranges between the highs around Y133.84 (just above May 22 reversal high of Y133.80) and Oct 15 low at Y132.65. Daily studies are bullish but near overbought levels – if bulls can sustain a rally above Y133.80 we may see a test of Y134.95 – the Sept 19 reversal high. However, failure at Y133.80 again adds risk lower. Bears aim below the Oct 15 low towards the daily Tenkan line at Y132.49 and a break below here targets Y131.15 – the Oct 8 low.
R 4: Y134.60 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y134.38 Jan 2010 reversal high
R 2: Y134.05 76.4% of Y134.95-131.15
R 1: Y133.80/84 May 22 reversal high, Hourly high
Latest price: Y133.43
S 1: Y133.05 Daily Kijun line
S 2: Y132.92 21-DMA
S 3: Y132.65 Low Oct 15
S 4: Y132.49 Daily Tenkan line
