EUR/USD pushed up to test just above $1.3600 yesterday and today also; this left a long upper shadow yesterday and may do today as well. Daily studies continue to show negative divergence adding to downside pressure, however if bulls manage to retest Oct 3 high at $1.3646 and break above we could see risk flip to upside. For now, we expect sideways trading to continue unless bears push down to break below support – initial suppt at $1.3539, Oct 4 low.
R 4: $1.3711 High Jan 2013
R 3: $1.3681/84 Reversal high Apr 2007, Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.3646 High Oct 3
R 1: $1.3607 High Oct 8
Latest price: $1.3565
S 1: $1.3539 Low Oct 4
S 2: $1.3518 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3646
S 3: $1.3501 Low Sept 19
S 4: $1.3486 21-day moving average
GBP/USD tests the channel top while bouncing from 21-DMA, the key res and suppt levels at $1.6131 and $1.6038, respectively. Yesterday’s candle has a decent lower shadow which shows pressure higher remains, however dly/wkly studies are bearish or overbought which suggests bears may attempt a downside break below 21-DMA to channel base at $1.5870. But any correction lower should be limited as we remind of bullish monthly studies and double-bottom pattern.
R 4: $1.6206 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6163 High Sept 18
R 2: $1.6131 Channel top from Jul 3
R 1: $1.6000 High Oct 7
Latest price: $1.6066
S 1: $1.6062/64 Hourly low, 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260
S 2: $1.6038 21-day moving average
S 3: $1.5956 Low Sept 25
S 4: $1.5943 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
USD/JPY rebounds from the daily Bollinger band base and 200-DMA, both support at Y96.55 and Y96.78, respectively, but sentiment could flip to the upside as daily studies suggest an upcoming reversal from oversold territory. A close above the Oct 4 high would encourage bulls and an upside breakout of the falling channel would confirm the change in sentiment. However, weekly/monthly studies are bearish or overbought, cautioning bulls.
R 4: Y98.11 Daily Ichimoku Cloud base
R 3: Y97.99 Falling channel top
R 2: Y97.81 Daily Tenkan
R 1: Y97.49 Oct 4 high
Latest price: Y97.42
S 1: Y96.78 200-day moving average
S 2: Y96.55 Daily Bollinger band base
S 3: Y96.30 Support line from Sept 6 low
S 4: Y95.76/80 Apr 2 support line, Falling channel base from Sept 11 high
EUR/JPY moving higher after testing the daily Bolli band base yesterday – a close around the current level firms daily studies as they show the potential to reverse higher. Bulls turn focus to resistance which is thick above Y132.00 – initial res is at Y132.36/43, the daily Tenkan and Kijun lines, above here is a resistance line from Sept 19 at Y132.51 followed by the 21-DMA at Y132.69, a break above these levels then targets the Sept 19 high at Y134.95.
R 4: Y133.21 High Oct 3
R 3: Y132.69 21-DMA
R 2: Y132.51 Resistance line from Sept 19
R 1: Y132.36/43 Daily Tenkan line, Daily Kijun line
Latest price: Y132.07
S 1: Y131.37 55-day moving average
S 2: Y131.11 Daily Bollinger band base
S 3: Y130.99 Support line from Jun 13
S 4: Y130.60/64 100-DMA, 61.8% of Y127.98-134.9