Market movers today
* Focus on politics in both the US and Italy. While we will likely have to wait before anything new happens in the US deadlock, today Italy’s prime minister is expected to win a vote of confidence in parliament. Italian markets rallied strongly yesterday as Silvio Berlusconi – the man who has been the main cause of trouble in Italian politics the past years – faces a major defeat.
* ECB will also be in the limelight today. We do not expect a rate cut or new measures from ECB but focus will be on signals on how high the bar is for ECB to provide new stimulus, such as a new 3Y LTRO.
* On the data front the US ADP employment report is the main focus. However, since Friday’s non-farm payrolls report is likely to be delayed due to the government shutdown, it may have less market impact than usual. Weekly jobless claims have been strong lately and point to decent job growth in September. Consensus is for a rise of 175k in ADP employment.
Read the full report: FX Daily
Danske Bank