EUR/USD continues to range with a series of highs trending lower from the Sept 19 reversal high at $1.3569 and the downside finds support around the 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3542, initial support at $1.3459. We await a breakout while mixed studies lend little direction, daily studies suggest risk downside while monthly studies range higher. A break below $1.3459 could see a slide to 200-week MA at $1.3348, however upside break targets $1.3711 – Feb 2013 high.
R 4: $1.3619 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.3569 High Sept 19
R 2: $1.3537 High Sept 25
R 1: $1.3493 5-day moving average
Latest price: $1.3484
S 1: $1.3459 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3542
S 2: $1.3400 High Aug 8
S 3: $1.3392 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3542
S 4: $1.3348 200-week moving average
GBP/USD leaves another higher low and higher high but continues to trade around the channel top while bears test support but fail to close below. Daily studies continue to slide and weekly studies show signs of stalling in overbought territory – a close below the 23.6% at $1.5990 and the Sept 24 low at $1.5956 are needed for bears to take control. However, bulls continue to eye the Sept 18 high at $1.6163 while monthly studies reverse higher.
R 4: $1.6238 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6163 High Sept 18
R 2: $1.6107 High Oct 2010
R 1: $1.6096 High Sept 26
Latest price: $1.6048
S 1: $1.6011 76.4% of $1.6381-1.4814
S 2: $1.5990 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6163
S 3: $1.5956 Low Sept 24
S 4: $1.5915 Monthly triangle base
USD/JPY continues to trade in amongst daily Tenkan and Kijun lines but is struggling to make a clean break above 100-DMA – at Y99.03. The downside is also limited as Aug 12 support line is strong initial support at Y98.45, a break below finds daily Ichimoku cloud top and base at Y98.17 and Y97.66, respectively. Studies lend little direction but monthly studies are overbought and failure to regain the Y100.00 level increases downside risk.
R 4: Y99.94/99 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79, High Sept 12
R 3: Y99.67 High Sept 20
R 2: Y99.21 21-DMA
R 1: Y99.03 100-day moving average
Latest price: Y98.56
S 1: Y98.45 Support line from Aug 12
S 2: Y98.15/17 Weekly Kijun line, Daily Ichimoku cloud top
S 3: Y98.02 Daily Bollinger band base
S 4: Y97.66 Daily Ichimoku Cloud base
EUR/JPY now turning higher as bulls struggle to hold above the daily Tenkan line at Y133.28. Daily studies were looking a little bearish but now suggests some upside momentum – 10-day momentum study rebounds from the zero-line indicating some risk higher. Initial resistance at Y134.00, hourly and Sept 24 high, a break above would threaten the Sept 19 high at Y134.95. However, failure to close above Tenkan line would likely turn dly studies lower again.
R 4: Y134.95 High Sept 19
R 3: Y134.77 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: Y134.38 Jan 2010 reversal high
R 1: Y134.00 High Sept 24
Latest price: Y133.15
S 1: Y132.70 Low Sept 24
S 2: Y132.12/27 Daily Kijun line, 21-DMA
S 3: Y131.66 Former Trendline from May 22
S 4: Y130.20 55-day moving average