EUR/USD continued to test the upside yesterday to leave another high at $1.3569 – yesterday’s candle forms a spinning-top with a decent upper shadow, adding a little risk lower. However, studies still rise further into overbought territory, bulls require break above $1.3569 Sept 19 high to continue the upward trend. However, 10-day momentum slips and could reverse if bears take control. The aim for bulls next week is to hold above 200-week MA at $1.3355.
R 4: $1.3711 High Jan 2013
R 3: $1.3695 Monthly Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.3681 Reversal high Feb 2007
R 1: $1.3569 High Sept 19
Latest price: $1.3532
S 1: $1.3501 Low Sept 19
S 2: $1.3459 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3542
S 3: $1.3400 High Aug 8
S 4: $1.3392 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3542
GBP/USD already pared some gains from large white breakout candle on Weds – forms dark cloud cover candle pattern on daily chart, a close back within the channel today should confirm and could also form a shooting-star reversal pattern on weekly chart. Support today at $1.6004 – the 5-DMA, $1.5990 – 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6163 and below here is channel top at $1.5978. Daily studies show potential to reverse lower but monthly studies still reversing higher.
R 4: $1.6309 Reversal High Sep 2012
R 3: $1.6278 Channel breakout measured move target
R 2: $1.6163 High Sept 18
R 1: $1.6107 Daily Bollinger band top
Latest price: $1.6039
S 1: $1.6004 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.5990 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6163
S 3: $1.5978 Channel top from Jul 3
S 4: $1.5915 Monthly triangle base
USD/JPY accelerated away from the daily Ichimoku cloud after closing within on Weds, bulls pushed up through many resistance levels including the daily Kijun, Tenkan and numerous moving averages – the daily Tenkan line is now initial support at Y99.18. However, focus begins to turn higher as daily studies appear to reversing higher – a close above yesterday’s high and the Sept 12 high could confirm this, resistance at Y99.62 and Y99.99.
R 4: Y101.39 76.4% of Y103.74-93.79
R 3: Y100.61/70 High Sept 11, Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: Y99.94 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79
R 1: Y99.62 High Sept 19
Latest price: Y99.31
S 1: Y99.18 Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y98.71 Daily Kijun
S 3: Y98.46 Low Sept 16
S 4: Y98.08 Support line from Aug 12
EUR/JPY broke above the Sept 11 high at Y133.38 and closed above the daily Tenkan and daily Bolli band top to complete the measured move of the pennant breakout. Current price action still trades above the Bolli top which bears are testing as support at Y134.37, below here support seen at Y133.63 and Y133.28, the 1% 15-DMA envelope top and daily Tenkan line, respectively. Studies mainly seem overbought so we may see some of the gains pared.
R 4: Y136.89 Jul 2009 reversal high
R 3: Y136.26 3% 15-day MA envelope top
R 2: Y135.57 Apr 2009 reversal high
R 1: Y134.95 High Sept 19
Latest price: Y134.33
S 1: Y134.09 Weekly Bollinger band top
S 2: Y133.63 1% 15-day MA envelope top
S 3: Y133.28 Daily Tenkan line
S 4: Y132.74 High Jul 24