EUR/USD failed to test Sept 16 high to leave an inside-day, the lower high could be the start of a reversal in sentiment while studies are overbought. Initial resistance is the 76.4% of $1.3452-1.3105, at $1.3370 and above here is Sept 16 high at $1.3386 – a break above would resume the bullish trend. Initial support remains at $1.3325, which held bears yesterday, a break below here finds Aug 5 high at $1.3300 and below is the 21-DMA at $1.3286.
R 4: $1.3442 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.3400 High Aug 8
R 2: $1.3386 High Sept 16
R 1: $1.3370 76.4% of $1.3452-1.3105
Latest price: $1.3360
S 1: $1.3325/26 High Sept 11 & 12, 5-DMA
S 2: $1.3300 High Aug 5
S 3: $1.3286 21-day moving average
S 4: $1.3265 Former May 2011 resistance line
GBP/USD posts an inside-day after bulls attempted a breakout of the channel but closed within. Daily studies appear to be reversing lower while weekly studies remain overbought – we expect bears to pare the recent gains and recover to 50.0% of recent move higher at $1.5696. Ahead of here, initial suppt is 5-DMA at $1.5877, then further suppt at $1.5837 – 23.6% of $1.5429-1.5963. However, break above $1.5963, Sept 16 high, would likely encourage bulls.
R 4: $1.5993 Reversal high Mar 2012
R 3: $1.5963 High Sept 16
R 2: $1.5947/54 Daily Bollinger band top, Channel top from Jul 3
R 1: $1.5915 Former monthly triangle base
Latest price: $1.5911
S 1: $1.5877 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.5837 23.6% of $1.5429-1.5963
S 3: $1.5776 Low Sept 12
S 4: $1.5752/59 Reversal high Jun 17, 38.2% of $1.5429-1.5963
USD/JPY posted a mini-doji yesterday as there was very little price movement, today is already replicating the same despite daily studies sliding further. Initial support is at Y98.99 – 21-DMA, and further support at Y98.71, the daily Kijun line. A break below here would extend losses to the Ichimoku cloud top at Y98.20, however failure to move lower could see bulls retest the Sept 16 high and daily Tenkan line at Y99.52/54, respectively.
R 4: Y100.23 High Sept 6
R 3: Y100.04 Monthly Ichimoku cloud top
R 2: Y99.94 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79
R 1: Y99.52/54 High Sept 16, Daily Tenkan line
Latest price: Y99.17
S 1: Y98.99 21-day moving average
S 2: Y98.71 Daily Kijun
S 3: Y98.46 Low Sept 16
S 4: Y98.20 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
EUR/JPY now moving away from the former May 22 trendline and turns higher towards the Sept 11 reversal high at Y133.38. Ahead of here, initial resistance seen at Y132.77, the Sept 11 low, and further res at Y133.46, the daily Bollinger band top. However, studies are mixed and monthly studies remain overbought – failure to break resistance could see bears retest former trendline which is support at Y131.80, a key level above daily Tenkan at Y131.65
R 4: Y133.68 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: Y133.46 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: Y133.38 High Sept 11
R 1: Y132.77 Low Sept 11
Latest price: Y132.51
S 1: Y132.04 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12
S 2: Y131.80 Former Trendline from May 22
S 3: Y131.65 Daily Tenkan line
S 4: Y131.52 21-day moving average