EUR/USD slips back below weekly resistance line from May 2011 and begins to test support seen from Fibonacci levels of move from $1.3105-1.3325. Initial support at $1.3273 – the 23.6%, next is 38.2% at $1.3241 and 50.0% at $1.3215. However, daily studies still bullish despite approaching overbought levels – failure to break below 23.6% could see bulls prepare for another break above May 2011 res line – key res at $1.3325, the double-day high.
R 4: $1.3400 High Aug 8
R 3: $1.3370 76.4% of $1.3452-1.3105
R 2: $1.3325 High Sept 11 & 12
R 1: $1.3300/03 High Aug 5, Hourly high
Latest price: $1.3276
S 1: $1.3258 Low Sept 12
S 2: $1.3231 Resistance line from Feb 2013
S 3: $1.3209 55-day moving average
S 4: $1.3186/89 38.2% of $1.2755-1.3452, 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3325
GBP/USD moves back within dly Bolli band while dly studies begin to weaken in overbought territory – failure to test yesterday’s high at $1.5840 could flip sentiment lower. Initial resistance at $1.5816 – dly Bolli top and also the hourly high, however the overbought dly/wkly studies caution bulls despite the buy-signals on mthly chart. Initial support at $1.5769, 5-DMA, break below should test 200-week MA and 23.6% of $1.5429-1.5840 at $1.5739/43.
R 4: $1.5915/19 Former monthly triangle base, Channel top from Jul 3
R 3: $1.5879 Reversal high Feb 1
R 2: $1.5840/44 High Sept 12, Weekly Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.5816 Daily Bollinger band top
Latest price: $1.5789
S 1: $1.5769 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.5739/43 200-week MA, 23.6% of $1.5429-1.5840
S 3: $1.5683/89 38.2% of of $1.5429-1.5840, 100-week MA
S 4: $1.5630/34 21-DMA, 50.0% of $1.5429-1.5840
USD/JPY sank to test the 100-DMA as support at Y99.04 but failed to break below and ended a little higher leaving a bit of a lower shadow, bulls may use this to regain Sept 11 high at Y100.61 but dly studies remain overbought and 10-week momentum still shows negative divergence. Initial support still the 100-DMA at Y99.04 and below here is the 55-DMA at Y98.92, followed by the 21-DMA at Y98.77. Initial resistance is the 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79 at Y99.94.
R 4: Y100.79 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y100.23 High Sept 6
R 2: Y100.04 Monthly Ichimoku cloud top
R 1: Y99.94 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79
Latest price: Y99.91
S 1: Y99.04 100-day moving average
S 2: Y98.92 55-day moving average
S 3: Y98.77 21-day moving average
S 4: Y98.27 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
EUR/JPY slipped below the May 22 trendline but failed to close below and now price action currently holds above. Bears will be looking to retest this trendline which is support at Y131.87 but bulls aim to break above the Sept 11 high at Y133.38 to test the May 27 reversal high at Y133.80. Above here bulls target the measured move of the triangle topside breakout at Y134.39, however daily and monthly studies are overbought so downside risks remain.
R 4: Y133.80 Reversal high May 22
R 3: Y133.55 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 2: Y133.27 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y132.77 Low Sept 11
Latest price: Y132.46
S 1: Y132.04 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12
S 2: Y131.87 Former Trendline from May 22
S 3: Y131.65 Daily Tenkan line
S 4: Y131.23 21-day moving average