EUR/USD closed above weekly resistance line from Feb 2013 and bulls look to hold above. Initial support at $1.3291 – 21-DMA, just above the weekly res line at $1.3279. Bears will aim to retest these levels while bulls turn focus higher to the 76.4% of $1.3452-1.3105 – further res at $1.3370 but we note that there are more resistance levels just below here – the 200-week MA at $1.3362, the 61.8% of $1.3711-1.2746 at $1.3342 and the Sept 11 high at $1.3325.
R 4: $1.3452/55 Reversal high Aug 20, Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.3400 High Aug 8
R 2: $1.3370 76.4% of $1.3452-1.3105
R 1: $1.3325 High Sept 11
Latest price: $1.3313
S 1: $1.3291 21-day moving average
S 2: $1.3266 5-day moving average
S 3: $1.3234 Resistance line from Feb 2013
S 4: $1.3204 55-day moving average
GBP/USD breaks above the daily Bollinger band top and continues to push up toward the former monthly triangle base at $1.5915. Monthly studies are turning bullish but daily and weekly studies stretch further into overbought territory, if sentiment turns lower the double-bottom on the monthly chart will be negated if cable falls below $1.5752. However, bulls aim to test the weekly Bolli top at $1.5851, a break above targets the Feb 1 reversal high at $1.5879.
R 4: $1.5915 Former monthly triangle base
R 3: $1.5907 Channel top from Jul 3
R 2: $1.5879 Reversal high Feb 1
R 1: $1.5845/51 High Feb 8, Weekly Bollinger band top
Latest price: $1.5823
S 1: $1.5800 Daily Bollinger band top
S 2: $1.5739/41 200-week MA, 5-day moving average
S 3: $1.5689 100-week MA
S 4: $1.5631 50.0% of $1.5431-1.5832
USD/JPY falls back below the Y100.00 level which it has failed to maintain a move above for the past two weeks. The monthly chart shows a top has been forming since May and monthly studies continue to look overbought, now daily studies appear to be overbought and reversing lower also. The pair already slipping below the daily Tenkan line at Y99.44 and bears now likely aim to test the 100, 55 and then 21-DMAs at Y99.02, Y98.90 and Y98.65, respectively.
R 4: Y100.70 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y100.23 High Sept 6
R 2: Y100.04 Monthly Ichimoku cloud top
R 1: Y99.94 61.8% of Y103.74-93.79
Latest price: Y99.47
S 1: Y99.02 100-DMA
S 2: Y98.90 55-day moving average
S 3: Y98.65 21-day moving average
S 4: Y98.27 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
EUR/JPY is descending back toward the May 22 trendline while daily studies track higher into overbought territory. Monthly studies have been oversold for a while and sentiment may be reversing to the downside, initial support is at Y132.04 – key 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12 which the pair has failed to close above on monthly chart since May. A break below then hits May 22 former trendline at Y131.89, a close below here negates the triangle breakout pattern.
R 4: Y134.38/39 Jan 2010 reversal high, Measured move target
R 3: Y133.80 Reversal high May 22
R 2: Y133.53 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 1: Y133.15 Daily Bollinger band top
Latest price: Y132.40
S 1: Y132.04 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12
S 2: Y131.89 Former Trendline from May 22
S 3: Y131.58 Daily Tenkan line
S 4: Y131.11 21-day moving average