Market movers today
● Risk appetite continues to be driven by developments in Emerging Markets and the conflict in Syria. Focus will be on any new signals regarding a military response in Syria.
● We look for euro inflation to decline to 1.3% from 1.6%. Consensus is 1.4% but following the low German inflation numbers yesterday the real consensus is now probably closer to 1.3%. The data should underpin European fixed income markets, as it is evident that inflation pressures in the euro area are non-existent.
● US core PCE for July will give more input to Fed on inflation. We look for a rise of only 0.1% m/m versus consensus of 0.2% m/m. We do not think it will keep Fed from starting to taper in September, though. On personal spending we look for a rise of 0.4% m/m (consensus 0.3% m/m).
● Chicago PMI will be the last of the bigger regional surveys for August ahead of the ISM report on Tuesday. We should see a rise as Chicago PMI has lagged the recent improvement in ISM.
● Busy day in Norway with unemployment data and retail sales. In Denmark Q2 GDP is due for release.
Read the full report: FX Daily
Danske Bank