EUR/USD failed to retest the $1.3400 Aug 16 high while daily studies slip lower and 10-week momentum shows negative divergence. Continued failure to break above $1.3400 should flip sentiment to the downside, the Feb 2013 res line is key suppt around $1.3288 – alongside the 21-DMA at $1.3282, Aug 5 high at $1.3300 and 5-DMA at $1.3304. Next suppt at $1.3248 and strong suppt seen around $1.3200.
R 4: $1.3474/83 55-month MA
R 3: $1.3444 100-month MA
R 2: $1.3400/16/17 Highs Aug 8, Jun 18, 19
R 1: $1.3380/82/86 High Aug 16, Daily Bollinger band top, 200-week MA
Latest price: $1.3323
S 1: $1.3282/88/3300/04 21-DMA, Res line from Feb 2013, High Aug 5, 5-DMA
SP 2: $1.3228/34/48 Low Aug 13
S 3: $1.3200/06/07 High Apr 17, Low Aug 15, High Jul 11
S 4: $1.3154/82 55-DMA
GBP/USD remains above pennant top but left a doji after large white breakout candle as bulls fade from initial res. Studies appear to be reversing lower and we may see bears retest pennant top as suppt at $1.5541, just below 5-DMA at $1.5569. Break below would cancel measured move target of $1.5856 and likely retest further suppt at $1.5512-22. However, monthly studies are about to reverse higher so any correction lower may be short-lived.
R 4: $1.5845/56 High Feb 8, Measured move target
R 3: $1.5752-89 Wkly Bolli top & Hgh Jun 17, 200-wk MA, 55-mth MA
R 2: $1.5678/84/90/99 Dly Bolli top, High Jun 6, 100-week MA, 21-month MA
R 1: $1.5642/46/57 55-week MA, Resistance line from Jul 3, High Aug 16
Latest price: $1.5620
S 1: $1.5541/69 Pennant top from Jun 17, 5-DMA
S 2: $1.5512/16/22 High Aug 12, Resistance line from Jan 2013, 200-DMA
S 3: $1.5458/77 High Jun 25
S 4: $1.5423/24/27 Low Aug 14, Low Aug 12
USD/JPY showed little movement after the pair declined from key res around Y98.34 to Y98.87, however daily studies and 10-week momentum still point higher. Initial res now at Y97.86/98.10, a break above here would again challenge the key RES 2 level. But monthly studies are overbought and look to reverse lower, failure at res could threaten suppt, initial suppt at Y97.05-23.
R 4: Y99.52/70/94 Res line May 22
R 3: Y99.04/08/15 Lows Jul 17, 15, Aug 5 high
R 2: Y98.34-87 Kijun, Cloud base, Cloud top, 100-DMA
R 1: Y97.86/98.10 Hourly high, 21-DMA
Latest price: Y97.61
S 1: Y97.05/06/23 Lows Aug 16, 15, Daily Tenkan
S 2: Y96.75/87 Jun 21 low
S 3: Y95.62-93 High Jun 18, Low Aug 8, Dly Bolli base
S 4: Y94.89/99/95.22 Apr 2 suppt line, May 2010 high & Jun 7 low, Jun 17 high
EUR/JPY now ranging sideways and leaves a doji after a spinning top, this indicates indecision. However, dly studies quite bullish and we may see retest of Jul 24 res line at Y130.79 – part of initial res. A break above would send studies higher but failure here could see the pair break back into daily Ichimoku cloud which is part of key initial suppt, top is at Y129.39 and suppt ahead is at Y129.53/58/66, 100-DMA, Aug 16 low & 55-DMA and wkly Tenkan line.
R 4: Y131.98/132.02/04/08 Highs Aug 2, Jul 23, May 31 high
R 3: Y131.41/44/57/58 Highs Jun 4 & 5, Aug 5 high, 100-Month MA
R 2: Y131.12 High Apr 11 & Jul 2
R 1: Y130.66/72/79 Highs Aug 14, 15, Resistance line from Jul 24
Latest price: Y130.08
S 1: Y129.39-66 Dly Ichimoku top, 100-DMA, Low Aug 16 & 55-DMA, Weekly Tenkan
S 2: Y128.79/98 Daily Ichimoku cloud base, Low May 8
S 3: Y128.19-34 Dly Bolli base, 200-mth MA, Jun 13 suppt line
S 4: Y127.98 Aug 12 reversal low