US data surprises have largely followed the average pattern of the prior 10-years, and the recovery in recent weeks can then be seen as largely following the “seasonal” pattern of a summer improvement. If this continues surprises will remain in a riskfriendly zone of being not too hot, but not too cold, for the next few weeks. US data surprises have tended to again turn lower as summer turns to fall, however, falling into negative territory in 8 of the past 10 Septembers. While the FX implications for this are clearest for crosses like USD/JPY, the absence of any such consistent pattern in eurozone data surprises suggest some upside risks to EUR/USD through this period as well. This less pronounced eurozone seasonality may also mitigate some of the risks to broader risk sentiment.
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Deutsche Bank