EUR/USD returned to the downside to break and close below key Jul 2012 supp line, now res at $1.2921. Monthly/weekly studies are bearish but daily studies still look oversold and bulls may force a push back above initial res, however bears will be looking to break below initial support, at $1.2877, the 50.0% $1.2043-1.3711 and Jul 4 low. A break below targets a test of $1.2797, the Apr 4 reversal low and just below the Nov 2012 support line at $1.2800.
R 4: $1.3068/76 55-DMA, 200-DMA
R 3: $1.3032/34/47 Jul 3 high, 61.8% of $1.2797-1.3417, 100-DMA
R 2: $1.2973 5-DMA
R 1: $1.2921-43 Jul 2012 Supp line, Low Jul 3, 55-wk MA
Latest price: $1.2895
S 1: $1.2877/83 50.0% of $1.2043-1.3711, Low Jul 4
S 2: $1.2843 Daily Bollinger band base
S 3: $1.2797/2800/04 Low Apr 4, Supp line Nov 2012, Reversal low Oct 2012
S 4: $1.2746
GBP/USD declines from the 100-DMA to break below two support lines and to slip below the 76.4% of $1.4832-1.5752 at $1.5049, bears now look to test the daily Bolli band base and the May 29 low, new initial support at $1.5007/09, respectively. Weekly and monthly studies are bearish but dly studies now stretching further into oversold territory, bulls may attempt a retest of the Mar supp line at $1.5094 but bears look to return to the Mar low at $1.4832.
R 4: $1.5280/83 100-DMA, 21-week MA
R 3: $1.5183/84/95 61.8% $1.483-1.575, May 29 supp line
R 2: $1.5156 High May 27 & 5-DMA
R 1: $1.5094 Support line from Mar low
Latest price: $1.5042
S 1: $1.5007/09 Daily Bollinger band base, Low May 29
S 2: $1.4954 Monthly Bollinger band base
S 3: $1.4890 Weekly Bollinger band base
S 4: $1.4832/55 Reversal low Mar 12th
USD/JPY squeezes back above the Y100.00 psychological level, maybe not quite as key as it once was, while 10-day momentum shows negative divergence and slow stochastic looks overbought, initial supp just below Y100.00. However, if bulls hang on above Y100.00 we may see a test of initial res around Y100.71-86 and formed from the 23.6% of Y90.88-103.74 and a number of highs and lows. Above here, key res at Y101.18, the daily Ichimoku cloud top.
R 4: Y102.08/27 Low May 21, Monthly Bollinger band top
R 3: Y101.39 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: Y101.18 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
R 1: Y100.71/79/83/86 May 9 high, May 23 low, High Jul 3
Latest price: Y100.26
S 1: Y99.90/94/95 High Apr 22, High Apr 11
S 2: Y99.19/27 23.6% of Y93.79-100.86, 55-DMA
S 3: Y98.76/83/87 Weekly Tenkan, Low Jun 3
S 4: Y98.15/16/24 Ichimoku cloud base, High Jun 26
EUR/JPY tested dly Tenkan line again and today tests 55-DMA as initial res at Y129.69. However, daily studies are bearish and may begin to slide, initial supp at Y128.85 – the dly Tenkan which held the past two sessions. Below here, strong supp around Y128.40 to Y128.52, these include the 200-mth MA, Jun 26 high, dly Kijun and 21-DMA. Of note, euro-yen is in a rising channel from the Jun 13 low, the base is at Y127.83 and rising 13 pips every session.
R 4: Y131.88/132.04/08 Rising channel top, May 31 high
R 3: Y131.04/12/16 Dly Bollinger band top, High Apr 11, Daily Ichimoku cloud top
R 2: Y130.33 23.6% of Y119.11-133.80
R 1: Y129.69/70 55-DMA, High Jun 21
Latest price: Y129.25
S 1: Y128.85 Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y128.40/45/48/52 200-month MA, High Jun 26, 21-DMA, Daily Kijun line
S 3: Y128.08/12/18 Highs Jun 18, 14
S 4: Y127.17/32/83 100-DMA, 21-week MA, Rising channel base