EUR/USD closed below the 200-DMA – now res around $1.3072-78, and also closed below the 61.8% of $1.2797-1.3417 at $1.3037. Daily studies still bearish and weekly/monthly studies look weaker, but price action today pares losses as bulls retest the 61.8%. The trend appears to be bearish, the 200-mth MA would be a L-Term target at $1.2051, but would require a break below key supp seen at $1.2905 – the Jul 2012 supp line, then break below $1.2746, the 2013 low.
R 4: $1.3161/80/92 Low Jun 20, 38.2% of $1.2797-1.3417, 21-DMA
R 3: $1.3107/20 50.0% of $1.2797-1.3417,
R 2: $1.3072/74/78 100-DMA & 5-DMA, 200-DMA, 55-DMA
R 1: $1.3034 61.8% of $1.2797-1.3417
Latest price: $1.3029
S 1: $1.2985/98 Low Jun 26, High May 22
S 2: $1.2926/31/43 55-week MA, Dly Bolli base, 76.4% of $1.2797-1.3417
S 3: $1.2905 Jul 2012 Support line
R 4: $1.2877 50.0% of $1.2043-1.3711
GBP/USD declined further and today is recovering a little of those losses as the pair is attempting to hold above the 100-DMA, initial support at $1.5308. Below here, support also seen at $1.5293 – the 61.8% of $1.5009-1.5752. Daily/monthly studies slide and a break below support would extend losses to the 76.4% at $1.5184 and then the daily Bollinger band base at $1.5165. However, bulls look to retest res levels – initial res at $1.5380, the 55-DMA & 50%
R 4: $1.5531/35 High Jun 21, 23.6% of $1.4832-1.5752
R 3: $1.5468/87/89 38.2% of $1.5009-1.5752, 21-DMA, Low Jun 7
R 2: $1.5400/01 Former Support line May 29, 38.2% of $1.4832-1.5752
R 1: $1.5380/85/82 55-DMA & 50.0% of $1.5009-1.5752, 5-DMA
Latest price: $1.5335
S 1: $1.5308/14/25 100-DMA, May 10 low, 21-week MA
S 2: $1.5281/86/92/93 Highs May 20, 17
S 3: $1.5183/84 61.8% of $1.4832-1.5752
S 4: $1.5156/65/74 High May 27, Daily Bollinger band base, Lows May 15
USD/JPY ranged yesterday between the daily Ichimoku cloud base, initial res at Y98.15 and the 50.0% level and 100-DMA, initial support at Y97.31 and Y97.08, respectively. Daily studies are bullish but monthly studies look likely to reverse in overbought territory, a break below the 100-DMA would extend losses to the daily Tenkan line at Y96.39. However, failure to break below support could send the pair back into the cloud.
R 4: Y99.90/94/95 High Apr 22, High Apr 11
R 3: Y99.06/28 55-DMA, High Jun 10
R 2: Y98.68-87 Dly Kijun, Weekly Tenkan, Low Jun 3
R 1: Y98.15/24 Ichimoku cloud base, High Jun 26
Latest price: Y97.70
S 1: Y97.24/49 Low Jun 26, 21-DMA
S 2: Y96.87/97.08 Jun 21 low, 100-DMA
S 3: Y96.39 Daily Tenkan line
S 4: Y95.77/79/81 High Jun 18, 61.8% of Y90.88-103.74, High Jun 14
EUR/JPY broke below the 100-DMA yesterday but bulls managed to close above. Price action today is holding just above initial support, seen at Y126.89 to Y127.06, formed by the 100-DMA, Jun 17 high, 21-week MA and Apr 29 low. Bulls may look to test the daily Tenkan line as initial res – now at Y127.74, but monthly studies look likely to form a sell-signal while weekly studies are bearish. Further supp at Y126.46, the 50% level and dly Ichimoku base.
R 4: Y129.39/52 Weekly Tenkan line, 55-DMA
R 3: Y128.92/93/98 Daily Kijun line, High May 1, Low May 8
R 2: Y128.45/46/59 High Jun 26, 200-month MA, Apr 29 high & 21-DMA
R 1: Y127.74-128.18 Dly Tenkan line, Highs Jun 18, 14, 38.2% Y119.11-133.80
Latest price: Y127.33
S 1: Y126.89/96/98/127.06 100-DMA, High Jun 17, 21-week MA, Apr 29 low
S 2: Y126.46 50.0% of Y119.11-133.80& Daily Ichimoku cloud base
S 3: Y126.04/18 Reversal high Mar 12, Jun 7 reversal low
S 4: Y125.56/57 Daily Bollinger band base, Jun 17 low