EUR/USD: The pair broke above $1.3400 yesterday to leave a high of $1.3416 but the pair closed below at $1.3392. Bulls still eye the 100-month MA and May 2011 res line at $1.3440/41, but now ahead of here initial res is yesterday’s high at $1.3416. However, daily studies still look overbought and initial support is at $1.3375 – the 5-DMA. Despite this, the last four sessions have left quite long lower shadows, which shows that upside pressure remains.
R 4: $1.3511/19/20 Weekly Bolli band top, Daily Bolli band top, High Feb 13
R 3: $1.3483/84 76.4% of $1.3711 to $1.2746, 55-month MA
R 2: $1.3440/41/53 100-month MA, Resistance line from May 2011, 200-week MA
R 1: $1.3416 High Jun 18
Latest price: $1.3390
S 1: $1.3375 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.3317/18/19 Former 23.6% of $1.2043-1.3711, High Jun 11, Low Jun 17
S 3: $1.3270/79/95 23.6% of $1.2797-1.3416, Lows Jun 13, 14
S 4: $1.3200/28 High Apr 17, Former 50.0% of $1.3711-1.2743
GBP/USD: The cross broke below the former rising channel to test the 23.6% of $1.5009-1.5752, key support at $1.5577, just above yesterday’s low at $1.5566. Daily studies are now bearish but weekly studies are still bullish. If bears hold below the channel base – initial res at $1.5676, we will likely see further correction. Initial support is at $1.5606/16 – the former 50.0% of $1.6381-1.4832, which held as resistance in early May, and the Jun 14 low.
R 4: $1.5789/94 61.8% $1.6381-1.4832, 200-week MA
R 3: $1.5731/38 55-month MA, High Jun 13
R 2: $1.5694 200-DMA
R 1: $1.5676 Channel base from Mar 12
Latest price: $1.5634
S 1: $1.5606/16 50.0% of $1.6381-1.4832, Low Jun 14
S 2: $1.5566/77 Low Jun 18, 23.6% of $1.5009-1.5752
S 3: $1.5535 23.6% of $1.4832-1.5752
S 4: $1.5468/89 38.2% of $1.5009-1.5752, Low Jun 7
USD/JPY: The pair is back above Y95.00 and already testing initial res, at Y95.77/79/81, the Jun 18 high, 61.8% of Y90.88-103.74 and Jun 14 high. Dly studies have been oversold since end of May, but weekly/monthly studies bearish. Failure at initial res could see bears control again, initial supp at Y94.99 to Y95.22, the May 2010 reversal high & Jun 7 reversal low, also Jun 17 high. The monthly chart may form a reversal but daily chart suggests consolidation is likely.
R 4: Y97.31/67/79 50.0% of Y90.88-103.74, Ichimoku cloud base, Aug 2009 high
R 3: Y97.01/02 Low Apr 30, Low May 1
R 2: Y96.54/79 Daily Tenkan line, 100-DMA
R 1: Y95.77/79/81 High Jun 18, 61.8% of Y90.88-103.74, High Jun 14
Latest price: Y95.35
S 1: Y94.99/95.22 May 2010 reversal high & Jun 7 reversal low, Jun 17 high
S 2: Y93.91/98/99 76.4% of Y90.88-103.74, Weekly Kijun, 38.2% of Y75.35-124.14
S 3: Y93.06/53/57 Daily Bolli band base, Mar 25 low, 38.2% of Y77.13-103.74
S 4: Y92.57 Reversal low Apr 2
EUR/JPY: The cross moves higher into the daily Ichimoku cloud and meets resistance around the daily Tenkan line, initial res at Y128.15, also the former 38.2%. Daily studies are a little firmer but weekly studies still bearish and monthly studies look overbought. Further res is at Y128.46/59, the 200-month MA and Apr 29 high. Yesterday the pair rose above the 100-DMA, support at Y126.76 but initial supp is at Y127.44/49 – the hourly low and Jun 6 low.
R 4: Y129.39/57 Weekly Tenkan line & Daily Kijun line, 55-DMA
R 3: Y128.93/98 High May 1, Low May 8
R 2: Y128.46/59 200-month MA, Apr 29 high
R 1: Y128.08/12/15 Highs Jun 18, 14, Daily Tenkan line
Latest price: Y127.65
S 1: Y127.44/49 Hourly low, Jun 6 low
S 2: Y126.76/91/92/127.06 100-DMA, 21-week MA, High Jun 17, Apr 29 low
S 3: Y125.94/126.04/18 Daily Ichimoku base, high Mar 12, Jun 7 reversal low
S 4: Y125.57 Jun 17 low