EUR/USD: The pair capped ahead of $1.3400, the Jun 13 high at $1.3390 is initial res and bulls require a break and close above here. However, daily studies appear overbought and may reverse lower. Initial support around $1.3317-19, the former 23.6%, Jun 11 high and Jun 17 low. Over the longer-term, if euro-dollar breaks above the 100-month MA at $1.3439 we expect a test of $1.3711, the Feb 2013 high before testing a long-term res line at $1.4133.
R 4: $1.3511/20 Weekly Bollinger band top, High Feb 13
R 3: $1.3483/85 55-month MA & 76.4% of $1.3711 to $1.2746, Dly Bolli band top
R 2: $1.3439/41/53 100-month MA, Resistance line from May 2011, 200-week MA
R 1: $1.3390 High Jun 13
Latest price: $1.3350
S 1: $1.3317/18/19 Former 23.6% of $1.2043-1.3711, High Jun 11, Low Jun 17
S 2: $1.3279/95 Lows Jun 13, 14
S 3: $1.3228/50 Former 50.0% of $1.3711-1.2743, 23.6% of $1.2797-1.3370
S 4: $1.3200 High Apr 17
GBP/USD: The cross still testing ground above and below the 200-DMA, at $1.5697 which is just below current price action. Bears look to break and close below here and then the channel base, but failed to do for the past two days. Daily studies overbought and sentiment may reverse to downside if bulls fail to close above initial res – 55-mth MA at $1.5732 and Jun 13 high at $1.5738. Above
here, key res at $1.5789/95 – 61.8% of $1.6381-1.4832 and 200-wk MA.
R 4: $1.5879/90 Reversal high Feb 1, Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.5826/41/45 Channel Mid-line, Weekly Bollinger band top, High Feb 8
R 2: $1.5789/95 61.8% $1.6381-1.4832, 200-week MA
R 1: $1.5732/38 55-month MA, High Jun 13
Latest price: $1.5695
S 1: $1.5664 Channel base from Mar 12
S 2: $1.5606/16 50.0% of $1.6381-1.4832, Low Jun 14
S 3: $1.5577 23.6% of $1.5009-1.5752
S 4: $1.5489/96 Low Jun 7, 23.6% of $1.4832-1.5701
USD/JPY: The pair left an inside-day and current price action forms another today while bulls fail to break above the Y95.00 level, initial res with yesterday’s high at Y95.22 also adding to initial res. Wkly/mthly studies are bearish and we expect a retest of initial supp, seen just below Y94.00, the 76.4% of Y90.88-103.74, weekly Kijun line and the former 38.2%. A break below here would resume the bearish trend and likely extend losses to Y90.88.
R 4: Y97.01/02 Low Apr 30, Low May 1
R 3: Y96.63/74 Daily Tenkan line, 100-DMA
R 2: Y95.79/81 61.8% of Y90.88-103.74, High Jun 14
R 1: Y94.99/95.22 May 2010 reversal high & Jun 7 reversal low, Jun 17 high
Latest price: Y94.81
S 1: Y93.91/98/99 76.4% of Y90.88-103.74, Wkly Kijun, 38.2% of Y75.35-124.14
S 2: Y93.28/53/57 Dly Bolli band base, Mar 25 low, 38.2% of Y77.13-103.74
S 3: Y92.57 Reversal low Apr 2
S 4: Y90.88 Reversal low Feb 25
EUR/JPY: The cross leaves an inside-day and remains within the daily Ichimoku cloud but bulls failed to break above the 100-DMA, now at 129.39 and just below initial res – seen at 126.86/92/127.06 – the 21-week MA and hourly high, the Jun 17 high and the Apr 29 low. A break above here could see a test of the Jun 6 low at Y127.49, but weekly studies are bearish and monthly studies look overbought. Initial supp at Y125.57/94, the Jun 17 low and the daily Ichimoku cloud base.
R 4: Y128.46/59 200-month MA, Apr 29 high
R 3: Y128.12/15 Jun 14 high, 38.2% of Y119.11-133.80 & Daily Tenkan line
R 2: Y127.49 Jun 6 low
R 1: Y126.86/92/127.06 21-week MA & Hourly high, High Jun 17, Apr 29 low
Latest price: Y126.65
S 1: Y125.57/94 Jun 17 low, Daily Ichimoku cloud base
S 2: Y124.72/97 61.8% of Y119.11-133.80, Low Jun 13
S 3: Y124.44/50 23.6% of Y94.12-133.80, Reversal High Mar 20
S 4: Y123.09/33 Former 38.2% of Y169.96-94.12, Reversal high Apr 2011