Major Forecast Changes
FX: With Fed appearing somewhat more inclined towards QE-tapering than previously signaled, and FX markets starting to front runt this, we bring down our 3 month EURUSD forecast to 1.32 (see our argumentation on page 9 on why we still have a bias for a somewhat stronger EURUSD). We also adjust EURGBP, AUDUSD, USDCAD and USDCNY downwards while bringing the 3 month USDJPY forecast up to 100.
Commodities: We adjust our Brent Q2 forecast down to USD 105/bbl which implies higher average prices from here. We still believe Q2 will be the low-point of the year for prices. Our 2013 average Brent oil price forecast is lowered to USD 111/bbl in 2013 due to lower-than-expected prices in Q2. ECB and EUR rates: We changed forecasts for the ECB and EUR rates a few weeks ago.
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Nordea