EUR/USD: The pair already breaks above the 55-DMA, formerly a key support level, while daily studies continue to track lower. However, weekly and monthly studies remain bullish and the pair’s recent decline met support around $1.2936, the 61.8% of the move from $1.2746 to $1.3243. Focus turns to resistance, a break above the 21-DMA at $1.3066 would help turn sentiment around. Above here, the 100-DMA is at $1.3149 and the Feb 1 resistance line lies at $1.3176.
R 4: $1.3149 100-DMA
R 3: $1.3115/16/17 38.2% of $1.3711-1.2743, Apr 29, 22 highs
R 2: $1.3066 21-DMA
R 1: $1.3035/40 5-DMA, 5-week MA
Latest price: $1.3000
S 1: $1.2936/44 Low May 10 & 61.8% $1.2746-1.3243, Daily Bollinger base
S 2: $1.2854/63/86 Jul 2012 Support line, 76.4% of $1.2746-1.3243, 55-week MA
S 3: $1.2746/66 Low Apr 4, Weekly Bollinger band base
S 4: $1.2662 Nov 2012 reversal low
GBP/USD: The cross closes below the channel base but currently trades either side of the 38.2% of $1.4832 to $1.5606, we note that the channel break still targets a measured move to $1.566. Daily studies continue to slide, but bulls may attempt to break back into the channel, initial resistance at $1.5367. Failure here opens the downside for bears to extend losses and complete the measure move. Initial support is at $1.5219/46, the 50.0% level and the 55-DMA.
R 4: $1.5532/56 Channel mid-line from Mar 12 low, Jan 2013 resistance line
R 3: $1.5485/96 Low May 3, 100-DMA
R 2: $1.5391-24 5-DMA, 21-DMA, Highs Apr 12, 11, 38.2% of $1.6381-1.4832
R 1: $1.5367/68 Channel base from Mar 12, High Apr 19
Latest price: $1.5310
S 1: $1.5219/46 50.0% of $1.4832-1.5606, 55-DMA
S 2: $1.5128/66 61.8% of $1.4832-1.5606, Lower daily Bollinger band
S 3: $1.5015/25 76.4% of $1.4832-1.5606, Measured move of channel break
S 4: $1.4832 Low Mar 12
USD/JPY: The pair creeps below Y101.50 and tests support around the Apr 2009 reversal high despite the bullish dly studies. After reaching Y102.15, bears may attempt to consolidate before bulls retest the May 13 high at Y102.15. Focus turns to Fibonacci retracements, the 23.6% of Y92.57-102.15 is at Y99.89 and the 38.2% at Y98.49. On a longer scale, the 23.6% of Y77.13-102.15 is
support at Y96.25. However, bears may find it tough to break back below Y100.00.
R 4: Y105.50 61.8% Fibonacci of Y124.14 to Y75.35
R 3: Y103.78 Reversal low June 2012
R 2: Y102.93 Upper weekly Bolli band
R 1: Y102.15/26 High May 13, 3.00% MA envelope top
Latest price: Y101.40
S 1: Y101.27/45 2.00% MA envelope top, Reversal high Apr 2009
S 2: Y100.54/79 May 10 low, May 9 high
S 3: Y99.89/90/95 23.6% Of Y92.57-102.15, Apr 22 high, Apr 11 high
S 4: Y99.45/62 High May 6, Daily Tenkan line
EUR/JPY: The rate declines a little after reaching a high of Y132.40, bears may aim for a little consolidation before bulls resume the upward trend, the pair already trades back within the daily Bollinger band. Initial support seen at Y131.01/12, the 1.00% MA envelope top and Apr 11 high, bears may aim to test this level but studies remain bullish and we expect a retest of Y132.40 and also the Feb 6 res line at Y132.80. Further support seen at Y130.70, the Apr 22 high.
R 4: Y134.04 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: Y133.60 3.00% MA envelope top
R 2: Y132.80 Feb 6 resistance line
R 1: Y132.40 High May 13
Latest price: Y131.90
S 1: Y131.01/12 1.00% MA envelope top, High Apr 11
S 2: Y130.70 Apr 22 high
S 3: Y130.42 May 8 high
S 4: Y129.96 Daily Tenkan line