EUR/USD: The pair closes below the 200-DMA while daily studies continue to slide. Weekly studies are weaker and bears now eye initial support, seen at $1.2936/46, the May 10 low and 61.8% of the move from $1.2746 to $1.3243 and also the daily Bollinger base. Strong support expected here and break below targets the Jul 2012 support line at $1.2850, also 76.4% level at $1.2863. Initial resistance around the 200-DMA at $1.2995, failure here encourages bears.
R 4: $1.3115/16/17 Apr 29, 22 highs
R 3: $1.3046/67 5-DMA, 21-DMA
R 2: $1.3010/11 55-DMA, Low May 9
R 1: $1.2989/95 Low Apr 25, 200-DMA
Latest price: $1.2975
S 1: $1.2936/45 Low May 10 & 61.8% $1.2746-1.3243, Daily Bollinger base
S 2: $1.2850/63 Jul 2012 Support line, 76.4% of $1.2746-1.3243
S 3: $1.2746/59 Low Apr 4, Weekly Bollinger band base
S 4: $1.2662 Nov 2012 reversal low
GBP/USD: The cross now moves below the channel base from Mar 12, a close below would potentially start a measured move to $1.5025, especially while daily studies continue to slide so sharply. The monthly chart shows how cable failed to break back into the ascending triangle, resistance at $1.5743, which opens the downside to further losses. Initial support now at $1.5310/14, the key 38.2% and May 10 low. Support below here at $1.5243, the 55-DMA.
R 4: $1.5504/20 100-DMA
R 3: $1.5485 Low May 3
R 2: $1.5434 5-DMA
R 1: $1.5405/10/12 21-DMA, Highs Apr 12, 11
Latest price: $1.5350
S 1: $1.5310/14 38.2% of $1.4832-1.5606, May 10 low
S 2: $1.5219/43 50.0% of $1.4832-1.5606, 55-DMA
S 3: $1.5128/67 61.8% of $1.4832-1.5606, Lower daily Bollinger band
S 4: $1.5015/25 76.4% of $1.4832-1.5606, Measured move of channel break
USD/JPY: The pair still above Y101.00 and is finding support now from the former Feb 11 resistance line at Y101.61, bears currently test this initial support level. Below here, supp at Y101.44/45, the daily Bollinger band top and Apr 2009 reversal high. A reversal of sentiment may only occur if bears manage to move back below Y100.00 level, but studies are bullish and initial res at Y102.11/15 the 3.00% MA envelope top and hourly high, which bulls look to test.
R 4: Y105.50 61.8% Fibonacci of Y124.14 to Y75.35
R 3: Y103.78 Reversal low June 2012
R 2: Y102.98 Upper weekly Bolli band
R 1: Y102.11/15 3.00% MA envelope top, Hourly high
Latest price: Y101.67
S 1: Y101.61 Feb 11 former resistance line – now support
S 2: Y101.44/45 Daily Bollinger band top
S 3: Y100.54/79 May 10 low, May 9 high
S 4: Y99.90/95 Apr 22 high, Apr 11 high
EUR/JPY: The cross still below the Feb 6 resistance line, initial resistance at Y132.75, just above the hourly high of Y132.40. A break above here would open the topside to further gains and could ignite a move to the monthly Ichimoku cloud top at Y137.70, however bears are looking to hold below. Studies are mainly bullish, but most look overbought, 10-day and 10-week momentum studies dip a little. Initial support at Y131.12, the Apr 11 high.
R 4: Y134.71 4.00% MA envelope top
R 3: Y134.05 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 2: Y133.41 3.00% MA envelope top
R 1: Y132.40/75 Hourly high, Feb 6 resistance line
Latest price: Y131.95
S 1: Y131.12 High Apr 11
S 2: Y130.70/82 Apr 22 high, 1.00% MA envelope top
S 3: Y130.42 May 8 high
S 4: Y129.96 Daily Tenkan line