AUD/USD: The pair took out the previous triple and double daily bottoms as it heads towards the 2013 lows. The $1.0221 level that previously supported is now noted as initial resistance with a close above needed to relieve the immediate bearish pressure. With the 21-DMA ($1.0336), falling daily channel top ($1.0330) and May 3 high all coming in around the same level we will look for a close above this region to initially target $1.0395 and then 2013 highs above.
R 4: $1.0395 – 200 day moving average
R 3: $1.0382 – 100 day moving average
R 2: $1.0323 – High May 3
R 1: $1.0221 – Previous daily support now resistance
Latest price: 1.0180
S 1: $1.0137 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 2: $1.0117 – 2013 low Mar 4
S 3: $1.0101 – Monthly low July 12 2012
S 4: $1.0063 – Falling daily channel base
NZD/USD: The cross has finally broken a little lower with the pair now targeting an initial test of the $0.8337-75 region support which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $0.8164- 0.8676 move at $0.8360. A close below this region then sees focus turn to retests of the 2013 low. We will continue to look for a close above the Apr 30 high to see shift to tests of the 2013 highs.
R 4: $0.8643 – High Apr 12
R 3: $0.8620 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: $0.8583 – High Apr 30
R 1: $0.8555 – High May 6
Latest price: 0.8450
S 1: $0.8420 – 50% Retracement of 0.8164-0.8676 move
S 2: $0.8375 – 100 day moving average
S 3: $0.8337 – Low Mar 25
S 4: $0.8292 – Previous daily resistance now support
AUD/JPY: The series of lower highs on Apr 19, Apr 25 and May 3 following bounces from pullbacks are a concern for AUD/JPY bulls and increase the likelihood of a break of the key rising daily trend line off the Nov monthly lows. We will continue to look for a close below the Apr 16 low as confirmation of a break of the trend line and a subsequent shift lower in focus back to the
Jpy92.50 level.
R 4: Jpy104.9 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: Jpy103.8 – High Apr 15
R 2: Jpy102.9 – High Apr 22
R 1: Jpy102.3 – High May 3
Latest price: 100.7
S 1: Jpy100.9 – Rising daily trend line
S 2: Jpy98.94 – Low Apr 16
S 3: Jpy96.95 – Low Apr 2
S 4: Jpy96.69 – 100 day moving average
USD/KRW: The cross has closed below the 100-DMA (Krw1093.0) for the first time since mid Feb and below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Krw1054.5-1147.2 move, as the pair continues to work its way towards the Krw1077-1082 support region. Below Krw1077 is expected to retest the 2013 lows. We will now look for a close above yesterday’s high to relieve the immediate bearish pressure and above the Apr 30 highs to shift focus higher.
R 4: Krw1125.5 – High Apr 18
R 3: Krw1110.1 – High Apr 29
R 2: Krw1105.0 – High Apr 30
R 1: Krw1091.1 – High May 7
Latest price: 1085.5
S 1: Krw1081.6 – Low Feb 28
S 2: Krw1077.0 – Low Feb 20
S 3: Krw1071.2 – Previous daily resistance now support
S 4: Krw1054.5 – 2013 Low Jan 11
USD/SGD: Remains little changed from yesterday’s closing level after putting in an inside day on Tuesday. Initial resistance remains at the May 2 high with the 100-DMA (Sgd1.2359) coming in around the same level today. Topside the pair still needs to close above the 21-DMA to relieve the immediate bearish focus while a close above the falling channel top is needed to call an end to the current down trend that is targeting 2013 lows.
R 4: Sgd1.2403 – Falling daily channel top
R 3: Sgd1.2391 – High Apr 26
R 2: Sgd1.2363 – 21 day moving average
R 1: Sgd1.2359 – High May 2
Latest price: 1.2319
S 1: Sgd1.2268 – Falling daily channel base
S 2: Sgd1.2224 – Low Jan 10
S 3: Sgd1.2198 – 2013 low Jan 2
S 4: Sgd1.2169 – Low Dec 18 2012