Based on the short-term targets and longer-term support levels, further downside is expected to carry Aussie towards ~1.0100 and ~1.0050 before stabilizing. In contrast to the what we have categorized as a bullish consolidation since last summer, there is a triple top developing with more negative implications. (ch1) S/t, the bear flag has resolved lower and since testing the lower channel (and 61.8% retrace), the downtrend has broken initial support at 1.0222. Near-term targets are now the Wave-3 projection at 1.0065 and the bear-flag symmetry target at 1.0023. Ahead of both the above target levels is important support via the March 4th reversal low at 1.0115 and 50% retracement of the June/July rally at 1.0098. (ch2) Levels: Support – 1.0170, 1.0098, 1.0065 Resistance – 1.0222, 1.0255, 1.0323.
Nomura