EUR/USD: The pair leaves a long-upper shadow which may spark a reversal and certainly adds caution to bulls. However, monthly studies remain bullish while daily studies trend higher but look a little weaker. Yesterday’s candle has the potential to form a shooting-star reversal pattern if bears close around the 5-DMA at $1.3130. Initial support at $1.3150/62, the former 38.2% and 100-DMA. Bulls look to break and close above daily Bolli band at $1.3198.
R 4: $1.3341
R 3: $1.3308
R 2: $1.3220/27/43 100-week MA
R 1: $1.3198/3200/02 Daily Bollinger top
Latest price: $1.3175
S 1: $1.3150/62 100-DMA
S 2: $1.3115/16/17/30 5-DMA
S 3: $1.3038 55-DMA
S 4: $1.2969 200-DMA
GBP/USD: The cross tested the channel top and 50.0% of $1.6381-1.4832, yesterday, but failed to close above. The two levels form initial resistance today at $1.5602/06, respectively. Daily studies appear to be losing steam and we note how the 100-week MA has crossed below the 200-week MA while the latter was already declining, which is technically a death-cross. Initial supp at $1.5522, the 5-DMA and further support at $1.5460/73, the 5-month MA.
R 4: $1.5813/17/33 100-week MA, 200-week MA
R 3: $1.5761/62/78 55-week MA, 200-DMA, 21-month MA
R 2: $1.5733/43 55-month MA, Mthly Trendline Jan 2009
R 1: $1.5602/06 Channel top from Mar 12
Latest price: $1.5545
S 1: $1.5522 5-day moving average
S 2: $1.5460/73 5-month MA, Apr 29 low
S 3: $1.5424
S 4: $1.5386 5-week MA
USD/JPY: USD slides a little further but still holding above the 38.2% level at Y97.13, a close below here could test the Jan 23 support line at Y96.77 and below here strong support at Y96.26-30, the 50.0% and Kijun line, the 2.00% MA envelope base and the lower daily Bolli. Daily studies are sharply lower, but pair fails to follow, we still note the double-top but the cross needs to close below Y95.80 to confirm. Bulls look to break above 21-DMA at Y98.36.
R 4: Y100.22 Monthly Ichimoku cloud top
R 3: Y99.90-95 Apr 11, 22 high
R 2: Y99.24 1.00% upper MA envelope
R 1: Y98.36 21-DMA, Tenkan
Latest price: Y97.17
S 1: Y97.01 Low Apr 30
S 2: Y96.71 Mar 12 high
S 3: Y96.26 Kijun & 50%
S 4: Y95.77-80 55-DMA, Apr 16 low
EUR/JPY: The cross still trying to follow daily studies lower, but leaves a series of higher lows while bulls test the dly Tenkan line as resistance. Initial res now seen at Y128.52/55/59, the 21-DMA, 200-mth MA and Apr 29 high. A break above here threatens a test of Y128.70/79/88, the mthly Bolli top, 1% MA env top and dly Tenkan line. Failure here will encourage bears to test support,
initial supp at Y127.06/21/22, the lows of Apr 29, 30.
R 4: Y130.70 Apr 22 high
R 3: Y129.91 High Apr 25
R 2: Y128.70-80 Upper mthly Bolli band
R 1: Y128.52-59 21-day moving average, 200-month MA
Latest price: Y127.98
S 1: Y127.06 Apr 29 -30
S 2: Y126.44/53 Low Apr 17, 38.2% of Y119.11 to Y131.12
S 3: Y126.04 High Mar 12
S 4: Y125.11/59 Wkly Tenkan line & 50.0% Y119.11-131.12, 76.4% Y127.71-118.73