EUR/USD: Long Upper-Shadow Cautions Bulls. The pair leaves a massive upper-shadow yesterday and closes near its open to form a doji day. Dly studies remain bearish while wkly studies may have reversed higher, mthly studies mixed. Initial supp now at $1.2965/67/74/89, the lows of Mar 6 and 1, the 23.6% level and Apr 25 low. Below here key supp at $1.2949, the 200-DMA. However, price action is already breaking higher and res now at $1.3057, the 55-DMA. Above here key res at $1.3115, the 38.2% level.
RES 4: $1.3150/57 Former 38.2% $1.4940-1.2043, 100-DMA
RES 3: $1.3115/17 38.2% of $1.3711-1.2743, Apr 22 high
RES 2: $1.3094/96 Highs Apr 25, 18
RES 1: $1.3057 55-DMA
Latest price: $1.3036
SUP 1: $1.2965/67/74/89 Low Mar 6, Low Mar 1, 23.6% $1.3711-1.2746, Low Apr 25
SUP 2: $1.2949 200-DMA
SUP 3: $1.2893 55-week MA
SUP 4: $1.2808/13 Support line from Jul 24, Daily Bollinger band base
GBP/USD: Breaks Above 38.2% – Bulls Eye Channel Top At $1.5554. The cross burst through resistance levels to close above the 38.2% of $1.6381-1.4832 at $1.5424, now initial support. Daily studies are also turning higher while weekly studies also rise. Monthly studies a bit bearish to flat. Initial resistance now at $1.5480/85, the Apr 25 high and reversal low from 28 Jun 2012. A break above could target the channel top, seen at $1.5554 just below the 5-month MA at $1.5557. Bears look to retest the 38.2% at $1.5424 as support.
RES 4: $1.5606 50.0% of $1.6381-1.4832
RES 3: $1.5579 100-day moving average
RES 2: $1.5554/57 Channel top from Mar 12, 5-month MA
RES 1: $1.5480/85 High Apr 25, Reversal low 28 Jun 2012
Latest price: $1.5466
SUP 1: $1.5424 38.2% of $1.6381-1.4832
SUP 2: $1.5339 5-day moving average
SUP 3: $1.5284 21-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.5224/28 Channel base from Mar 12, 55-DMA
USD/JPY: Notes Potential Double-Top. Dollar still hanging around just below the Apr 11 high at Y99.95, bulls still eye above this level but have yet to break above into territory above Y100.00. We continue to note the potential double-top pattern, the base is at Y95.80, the Apr 16 low, break below here confirms the reversal and target a measured move to Y91.65. Dly studies are mixed, 10-day momentum has declined for a while and slow stochastic is overbought but may reverse lower.
RES 4: Y101.45/81 Reversal high Apr 2009, 3.00% MA envelope top
RES 3: Y100.82 2.00% upper MA envelope
RES 2: Y100.19/40 Monthly Ichimoku cloud top, Feb 11 res line
RES 1: Y99.83/90/95 1.00% upper MA envelope, Apr 22 high, Apr 11 high
Latest price: Y98.84
SUP 1: Y98.49 Low Apr 23
SUP 2: Y98.19/21 38.2% Y135.15-75.35, 23.6% of Y92.57-99.95
SUP 3: Y97.63/64/85 Apr 18 low, 21-DMA, Tenkan line
SUP 4: Y97.13 38.2% of Y92.57-99.95
EUR/JPY: Bears Testing Support – Tenkan Line At 127.82. The pair slipping lower after bulls failed to test the Apr 11 high at Y131.12 and instead left a high at Y130.70 on Apr 22, forms part of initial resistance, just above the 1.00% MA envelope top at Y130.32. Bears turn to supp, price action is already slipping below the 23.6% of $119.11-131.12 at Y128.29 and initial supp around Y127.82/87/128.06, the Tenkan line, Apr 23 low and Apr 19 low. Break below here may target the 21-DMA at Y126.98 and 38.2% at Y126.53.
RES 4: Y132.90 3.00% MA envelope top
RES 3: Y131.87/132.04 100-month MA, 50.0% of Y169.96-Y94.12
RES 2: Y131.12/61 Apr 11 high, 2.00% MA envelope top
RES 1: Y130.32/70 1.00% MA envelope top, Apr 22 high
Latest price: Y128.37
SUP 1: Y127.82/87/128.06 Tenkan line, Apr 23 low, Apr 19 low
SUP 2: Y126.98 21-day moving average
SUP 3: Y126.44/53 Low Apr 17, 38.2% of Y119.11 to Y131.12
SUP 4: Y126.04 High Mar 12
EasyForexNews Research Team