EUR/USD: Failed At 23.6% Level, Long Outside Day Cautions. The pair failed at 23.6% $1.3711-1.2844 before slipping below the Mar 19 low at $1.2844, following wkly studies lower. New low of $1.2830 from yesterday should provide initial supp, below the Mar 19 low and lower dly Bolli at $1.2844. Close below could see risk skew to downside, further supp at $1.2713/36, 2.00% MA env and Nov 21 low. The pair holds below initial res, the 200-DMA at $1.2882. Further res now at $1.3038, the new 23.6% $1.3711-1.2830.
RES 4: $1.2997 21-DMA
RES 3: $1.2955/65/66/67 Lows Mar 8, 6, Redrawn Res line from Feb 1, Low Mar 1
RES 2: $1.2908 5-day moving average
RES 1: $1.2882/83 200-DMA & Low Mar 18, 50.0% $1.2043-1.3711
Latest price: $1.2865
SUP 1: $1.2830/44 Low Mar 25, Low Mar 19 & Lower daily Bolli band
SUP 2: $1.2713/36 2.00% MA envelope lower, Low Nov 21
SUP 3: $1.2662/80 Nov 13 reversal low, 61.8% of $1.2043-1.3711
SUP 4: $1.2583 3.00% MA envelope
GBP/USD: Fails At Jan 2 Res Line At $1.5210, Wkly Studies Rise. The cross failed to close above the Jan 2 res line, now part of initial res at $1.5198/99/5210, the 23.6% level, Mar 5 high and Jan 2 res line. A close above here would encourage bulls, however, daily studies are a touch weaker and another failed break above could open the downside. Initial supp seen at $1.5143, the Mar 25 low. A close below here could target the 21-DMA at $1.5080, however, wkly studies are reversing higher and further res at $1.5270/73.
RES 4: $1.5424 38.2% $1.6381-1.4832
RES 3: $1.5321/28 High Feb 22, Reversal low 22 Sept 2011
RES 2: $1.5270/73 Upper daily Bolli band, 50.0% of $1.3503-1.7043
RES 1: $1.5198/99/5210 23.6% of $1.6831-1.4832, High Mar 5, Jan 2 res line
Latest price: $1.5179
SUP 1: $1.5143 Low Mar 25
SUP 2: $1.5080 21-DMA
SUP 3: $1.5027 Low Mar 20
SUP 4: $1.4982/86/91 High Mar 13, Low Mar 1, Lower daily Bolli Band
USD/JPY: Holds Above Kijun Line Despite Sliding Studies. USD tested support as it sank to Y93.53, slipping below the Kijun line which provides initial supp today at Y93.79. Bulls also tested res as the pair rose above the 21-DMA, now initial res at Y94.57. Daily studies continue to slide sharply, however the pair has managed to ignore daily studies in the past. Failure to break below Y93.53 again could open the topside to test Tenkan line at Y95.06, just above the May 2010 reversal high at Y94.99.
RES 4: Y96.71 Mar 12 high
RES 3: Y96.11/13 Mar 21 high, Mar 20 high
RES 2: Y94.99/95.06 May 2010 reversal high, Tenkan line
RES 1: Y94.57/67 21-day moving average, 23.6% of Y88.06-96.71
Latest price: Y94.24
SUP 1: Y93.73/79/99 High Mar 4, Kijun line, 38.2% of Y124.14-75.35
SUP 2: Y93.41/45/53 38.2% of Y88.06-96.71, Jan 23 support line, Mar 25 low
SUP 3: Y92.22/38/67 Ichimoku cloud top, 50.0% of Y88.06-96.71, 55-DMA
SUP 4: Y92.09 23.6% of Y77.13-96.71
EUR/JPY: Follows Daily Studies Down, Slides Further Into Cloud. The pair rose to test the Ichimoku cloud top but failed to close above and instead declined through supp to hit a low of Y120.08, now part of initial supp at Y120.08/13/16, the Mar 25 low and highs of Jan 14 and 22. Dly studies fall and further supp now at Y119.78/87, the 23.6% Y94.12-127.71 and 3.00% MA lower env. A break below here would target the 38.2% Y105.98-127.71, especially while wkly studies also slide, however, mthly studies still rise.
RES 4: Y124.13/39/54 High Mar 19, Low Mar 12, 11
RES 3: Y123.64/85 Daily Ichimoku cloud top, High Mar 25
RES 2: Y122.92/93/123.09 21-DMA, Tenkan line, 38.2% of Y169.96-Y94.12,
RES 1: Y122.39/58/59 Kijun line, 23.6% Y105.98-127.71, 55-DMA
Latest price: Y121.27
SUP 1: Y120.08/13/16 Low Mar 25, Highs Jan 14, 22
SUP 2: Y119.78/87 23.6% of Y94.12-127.71, 3.00% lower MA envelope
SUP 3: Y119.41 38.2% of Y105.98-127.71
SUP 4: Y118.73 Low Feb 25
EasyForexNews Research Team