EUR/USD: Outlook Remains Bearish Whilst Below 200-DMA. The pair suffered a minor break below $1.2695 intra-day Fibonacci level — 76.4% of $1.2662 to $1.2802 and decisive break is seen extending downside to the 21-week moving average at $1.2658 and $1.2633/48, where latter is the 100-day moving average. The m/t outlook remains bearish whilst below the 200-day moving average at $1.2810.
RES 4: $1.2917 50.0% of $1.3172-$1.2662
RES 3: $1.2880/93 Resistance line from Oct 17, 55-DMA
RES 2: $1.2859 21-DMA,
RES 1: $1.2810/26 200-DMA, Low Oct 11
LATEST PRICE: $1.2766
SUP 1: $1.2695 76.4% of $1.2662 to $1.2802
SUP 2: $1.2658 21-Week moving average
SUP 3: $1.2633/48 Lower daily Bollinger band, 100-day moving average
SUP 4: $1.2608 50.0% Retracement of Jul/Sep rally
GBP/USD: Needs To Close Below 200-DMA To Open Downside. GBP suffered another break below the 200-day moving average Friday, but failed to close below. This level still remains important and decisive break favours move to $1.5807 — 55-week moving average, Lower daily Bollinger band. The daily studies still remain bearish, albeit oversold.
RES 4: $1.6125/35 Resistance line from 21 Sep, High 2 Nov
RES 3: $1.6043/59 High 7 Nov, 55-day moving average
RES 2: $1.5986 21-day moving average
RES 1: $1.5943 100-week moving average
LATEST PRICE: $1.58918
SUP 1: $1.5829/53 Low 15 Nov, 200-day moving average
SUP 2: $1.5807 55-week moving average, Lower daily Bollinger band
SUP 3: $1.5789/93 50.0% of Jun-Sep rally, High Jun 18
SUP 4: $1.5755/64 Low Aug 28, 200-week moving average
USD/JPY: Bear-Divergence Signals Throw Caution To Wind. Break above Y81.49 — 61.8% Retracement of Mar-Sep decline is encouraging for bulls but bear-divergence signal on daily studies continues to caution longs. Resistance is now at Y81.78/84 and Y82.52, which is the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of Mar-Sep decline from Y84.18 to Y77.13.
RES 4: Y83.30 High 2 Apr
RES 3: Y82.94 High 4 Apr
RES 2: Y82.52 76.4% Retracement of Mar-Sep decline
RES 1: Y81.78/84 High Apr 20, 2% Moving Average Envelope
LATEST PRICE: Y81.23
SUP 1: Y80.90 Low 16 Nov
SUP 2: Y80.68 High 2 Nov, 5-day moving average
SUP 3: Y80.31 Tenkan Line
SUP 4: Y80.08 21-day moving average
EUR/JPY: Breaks Resistance Line From April, Upside Scope. Cross has broken above resistance line from April 2 and given the recovery in daily studies from oversold territory, the risk is on further upside squeeze. Initial resistance is at Y104.11, albeit weak and break seen extending gains to Y104.59/63 and nothing significant until Y104.82 — 61.8% Fibonacci of Mar-July decline.
RES 4: Y105.58 High 4 May
RES 3: Y104.82 61.8% Fibonacci of Mar-July decline
RES 2: Y104.59/63 Monthly high Oct 23, Recovery low 16 Apr
RES 1: Y104.11 Hourly high
LATEST PRICE: Y103.78
SUP 1: Y102.46 Kijun line of Ichimoku cloud
SUP 2: Y102.22/17 Tenkan line, 200-day moving average
SUP 3: Y101.87 55-day moving average
SUP 4: Y101.59 Ichimoku cloud top
EasyForexNews Research Team