EUR/USD: 200-DMA Remains Key To Direction. The pair pulled up just short of the 200-DMA overnight and with daily tech studies no longer an issue and the 200-DMA key support, a close below today is need or else EUR/USD risks a bounce back towards the $1.2972 resistance level. A close below the 200-DMA would see focus shift lower to $1.2460-00 region with the 100-DMA just above at 1.2533. Close above Sept 24 hourly res sees focus return to $1.3141.
RES 4: $1.3141 – Falling LT daily trend line off May 4 2011 highs
RES 3: $1.3086 – High Sept 19
RES 2: $1.2972 – Hourly resistance Sept 24
RES 1: $1.2890 – Alternating hourly support/resistance Sept 24-27
LATEST PRICE: $1.2879
SUP 1: $1.2824 – 200 day moving average
SUP 2: $1.2761 – Hourly support Sept 11
SUP 3: $1.2627 – Low Sept 7
SUP 4: $1.2533 – 100 day moving average
GBP/USD: Fresh Two Week Lows. GBP dipped to fresh two week lows as the pair continues to head back towards the key $1.6082 support level with the previous daily channel top, 21-DMA and Sept 12 hourly support all found within a 1.6080-90 region. A close below is needed to see focus turn lower to retests of the 200-DMA down around $1.5770-75. Fresh 2012 highs are needed to see focus shift higher and back to the $1.6600-$1.6700 region.
RES 4: $1.6381 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: $1.6310 – 2012 high Sept 30
RES 2: $1.6267 – High Sept 25
RES 1: $1.6210 – High Sept 26
LATEST PRICE: $1.6186
SUP 1: $1.6139 – Low Sept 26
SUP 2: $1.6082 – Hourly support Sept 12
SUP 3: $1.5962 – Low Sept 10
SUP 4: $1.5913 – 38.2% retracement of $1.5270-$1.6310 move
USD/JPY: Layers Of Resistance To Slow Bounces. USD/JPY currently remains capped by the Sept 25 high at Y77.93 as it continues to drift lower towards the Sept 13 lows at Y77.26. The 21 day lower Bollinger band is heading gently lower with spikes below expected to resume. A close below the Sept 13 low would see immediate focus turn to tests of the 2012 lows at Y76.04 from late Jan. Layers of resistance remain in the Y78.92-Y79.66 region.
RES 4: Y78.97 – 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: Y78.92 – 100 day moving average
RES 2: Y78.45 – High Sept 20
RES 1: Y77.93 – High Sept 25
LATEST PRICE: Y77.65
SUP 1: Y77.44 – 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 2: Y77.26 – Low Sept 13
SUP 3: Y76.50 – Low Feb 6
SUP 4: Y76.04 – 2012 low Feb 1
EUR/JPY: Closes Below 21-DMA. EUR/JPY dipped below before closing on the rising daily trend line off the July monthly lows, also managing a close below the 21-DMA for the first time since early Aug, which adds weight to the current bearish case. To confirm a continuation of the move lower EUR/JPY needs to close below the Sept 14 support level or else risk a bounce back to the Sept 25 high. 200-DMA remains key resistance.
RES 4: Y102.53 – Hourly resistance Sept 19
RES 3: Y101.76 – 200 day moving average
RES 2: Y101.04 – High Sept 25
RES 1: Y100.45 – Hourly resistance Sept 25-26
LATEST PRICE: Y100.00
SUP 1: Y99.54 – Low Sept 14
SUP 2: Y98.92 – 100 day moving average
SUP 3: Y97.92 – Low Aug 28
SUP 4: Y95.76 – Low Aug 10
EasyForexNews Research Team