EUR/USD is inching slowing higher, bouncing off the shallow support line at 1.3034, which connects the lows from February to the lows seen in March. Failure here should act as an early warning signal of losses to the more important support at 1.2974/54, the February low and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. A break below here will be needed to trigger the slide to the 1.2624 January low. Intraday rallies are likely to struggle circa 1.3207 (55 day ma) and are expected to remain capped by 1.3487, the February high. Ahead of here strong resistance is offered by the 5 month downtrend at 1.3342 and a 7 month channel at 1.3377 and the February high at 1.3485.
GBP/USD is rebounding near term from the 55 day ma at 1.5827. We look for the rallies to find intraday resistance at 1.5935/65 and continue to view the market as having topped at 1.6062. Key near term support is the 2012 support line at 1.5803 and we look for this to give way shortly. Below here will target the 1.5599 March low en route to 1.5412, the 78.6% retracement seen this year. Intraday rallies should find resistance at 1.5935/65 ahead of the 1.6062/67 peak.
AUD/USD continues to hold 1.0260, the 50% retracement of the move up from the November low. We view this as the market consolidating its recent losses ahead of another leg lower and view the chart pattern as bearish while capped by the 1.0405 channel resistance. We favour a break down shortly towards psychological support at 1.00 and then .9919/.9863 the December 2011 low. Initial resistance is found at 1.0382 (200 day ma) ahead of the channel resistance at 1.0405.
USD/JPY has sold off to and is recovering from the 55 day ma at 80.56. This has provoked a rebound, but is not enough to restore the up move and we remain unable to rule out a slide back to 80.11, prior to reversal This is the 50% retracement of this year’s advance, where we would expect price to stabilise. Note the 1995 low at 79.92 and the top of the cloud at 79.93 are also found in this vicinity. The market will remain offered intraday below 82.00/52 (resistance line). Rallies will need to clear 83.40/45 to confirm upside intent and trigger a move to the 84.19 recent high.
USD/CHF is easing back from the 3 month resistance line at .9221. Very near term we would allow for some slippage back towards .9110/.9066, but would once again expect to see stabilisation ahead of .9000. We are biased towards the topside slightly longer term and look for an erosion of the 3 month resistance line shortly. This will trigger a move to the .9317/42. Below .9000 would target the .8931 February low and potentially the 200 day moving average at .8876.
EUR/GBP is consolidating just above the .8221 January low. There is some divergence of the 240 minute RSI and we would allow for the possibility of a deeper retracement very near term towards .8295/.8367. Longer term our bias is bearish as the market is viewed as having recently broken down from a 3 month consolidation and we would expect to see rallies remain pretty tepid. Below .8220 will target .8067, the 2010 low.
EUR/JPY has not sustained its initial break below key support at 105.93/65 (the 38.2% retracement of the move seen this year, and the March low) and is consolidating. We view this as the market absorbing recent losses. Intraday rallies are likely to find interim resistance at 106.79/107.62 and while capped here the market remains offered and capable of losses to the base of the cloud at 103.50, where we would expect to see signs of recovery.
EasyForexNews Research Team