EUR/USD continues to probe the 1.3291/1.3325 region (9th February high), it remains fairly choppy but ideally we would like to see failure here. A sustained break below intraday support at 1.3140 and the 55 day ma at 1.3130 is needed to further alleviate upside pressure and initiate a slide back to the recent low at 1.3004. Key near term support remains 1.2974/54, the February low, and a break below here will trigger the slide to the 1.2624 January low. We continue to view the 1.3487 recent high as an interim ceiling for the market. While trading below here, the outlook will remain bearish.
AUD/USD held steady on Friday following its move to the 1.0340 target. We anticipate only a small rebound, and then we look for losses to then extend towards 1.0260, the 50% retracement of the move up from November 2011. It remains directly offered while capped 1.0542/1.0637 (near term down trend, 55 day ma and last weeks high). Intraday rallies are expected to find initial resistance at 1.0490. Beyond 1.0260 we look for losses to 1.0120 then 1.00.
GBP/USD spent all week probing the 1.5927 level (8th Feb high), we continue to look for failure here. This will add weight to the idea that the market will top here. We continue to view the 1.5992 recent high as an interim ceiling for the market and expect failure ahead of here. Initial support lies at 1.5760/45, and below here attention should revert to underlying support at 1.5643/1.5599. Prices will need to close below 1.5643 to trigger another leg lower and this should leave the focus on the 1.5235 January low.
USD/CHF has again sold off and tested the key short term support at .9066. This is the November 2011 low. We look for this to hold and provoke recovery. Near term rallies will need to regain .9196/.9200 (20 day m.a.) in order to refocus attention on to the resistance offered by the .9317 October 2011 peak and the .9342/61.8% retracement. This is considered to be key resistance. Rallies will need to close above the .9317 pivot to initiate further upside buying interest towards the .9595 January peak. Below .9066 would see an extension to the support line at .9010.
USD/JPY has eroded base of cloud support on the 240 minute and Fibonacci support at 82.25. But it has held the 13th March low at 81.97 and the 6 week uptrend at 81.87 and is attempting to recover. We are unclear at this stage if the correction lower is over or not, but would attempt minor longs on the day. Below 81.85 will leave the market vulnerable to a deeper correction to 81.09 and possibly 80.13, where we would expect price to once again stabilise. Intraday rallies are likely to find initial resistance at 83.02 and 83.40 (top of cloud on 240 minute chart) and key short term resistance is the recent high at 84.10/19. Please note this move lower is viewed as a correction only – we remain longer term bullish
EUR/JPY held steady on Friday above its 20 day ma at 108.68. Last week the market charted a key day reversal just ahead of the 111.57 Intervention high and as a consequence we are unable to rule out further weakness this week back towards the 2 month uptrend at 106.26. We would expect to see the market attempt to stabilise between here and the 105.65 March low. Note that we consider KEY support to be 102.55/101.79, the 14th February low. The market will stay directly offered intraday while capped by 110.04, above here would introduce the possibility of another run up to the 111.43/57 recent highs and the October 2011 high where we would again expect to see failure.
EUR/GBP continues to inch higher – and we are going to revert to neutral as it is in fact fairly sidelined. While capped by .8423 a slight downside bias exists to target the .8265 February low and then the .8221 January trough, however there is little to indicate this happening currently. We assume that the recent peak at .8423 is an interim peak but key resistance remains 0.8505/24 (the recent high and the 8 month downtrend). While capped here our medium term outlook is bearish.
EasyForexNews Research Team