EUR/USD has held the initial test of the 55 day moving average, this is located at 1.3084. Rebounds are expected to remain tepid and we look for the Euro to remain under pressure and continue to regard the recent high at 1.3487 as an interim peak. The market remains directly offered intraday below 1.3217/91. While capped here we target 1.2974/54, the February low en route to the 1.2624 January low. Above 1.3325 lies the 50% retracement at 1.3436 as well as at the 1.3487 February peak. While trading below here, the outlook will remain bearish.
AUD/USD has closed below its 55 day ma at 1.0543 and is under pressure. We view the market as having topped recently at 1.0857 and we look for a slide back to the 200 day ma at 1.0406 initially and the December 2011 high at 1.0382. These are considered to be MINIMUM downside objectives and they should also act as the break down point to 1.00 and beyond. Note we have a top measurement to 1.0340. Intraday rallies will find resistance at 1.0670 and the market will remain directly offered intraday below here. The market is expected to stay below the 1.0815/57 resistance area where several February highs were made.
GBP/USD remained under pressure yesterday. The market has eroded the February lows and the 55 day moving average, it has closed below the 55 day ma. However has yet to close below key short term support at 1.5650/43 and we may see a small bounce intraday. The focus has shifted to the 1.5235 January low. Interim supports lie at 1.5524, 1.5397. These are the 61.8% and the 78.6% retracements. We regard the recent high at 1.5992 as the interim ceiling for the market, with the market directly offered intraday below 1.5833.
EUR/GBP continues to rebound from the 2 month support line, today at .8314, and is probing the .8421 high (late December high). This suggests some unfinished business on the topside and currently we are unable to rule out a move to the recent high at 0.8505 and the 8 month downtrend at .8536, which should curtail the move higher and while capped here our medium term outlook is bearish. Support is offered by the 55 day ma at .8350 ahead of the .8314 trendline. A drop through it will target the .8265 February low and then the .8221 January trough.
USD/CHF held relatively steady following its strong rally higher on Friday. We regard the .9066 November 2011 low as strong intraday support for the market and we will adopt a bullish stance near term while trading above this zone. We maintain that the 0.8931 low is a short term floor for the market. Immediate resistance is the 55 day moving average at .9241 but key resistance is the .9317 October 2011 peak. This is regarded as a medium term pivot and a move back above here will trigger a rally towards the 0.9595 January peak.
USD/JPY consolidated sideways yesterday following its recent marginal break above the May 2011 high at 82.23 into 10 month highs. We continue to target 83.80 short term, this is the measurement higher from the 75.30 to 79.55 base. We would allow for some profit taking here. Note that cloud support on the 240 minute chart, which has underpinned the entire bull move so far, is located at 80.90 currently. While this holds a positive bias is maintained. Ahead of here we have minor support at 81.87 and 81.15, the top of the cloud. Beyond 83.80 we look for a move to 85.53 then 86.80.
EUR/JPY held steady to slightly lower, but while dips hold over the 6 week uptrend at 106.63 an upside bias will remain. The market last week failed to regain 108.75 (high 28th Feb) and we suspect that the market will consolidate very near term. The market will need to regain 108.75 to retarget the 55 week moving average and July low at 109.32/58. Directly above here lies the 50% retracement of the April-to- January decline at 110.26 and the October peak at 111.57. Failure at 106.63 would target the 2 month uptrend at 104.60, where ideally we should see signs of stabilisation. Note that we consider KEY support to be 102.21/101.79, the 14th February low.
EasyForexNews Research Team