More active bets on falling JPY and less so on GBP
The IMM data for the period 15-21 Feb revealed:
The JPY net speculative long position fell further but was this time driven by added short contracts and not by reduced long contracts as was the case last
week.
The CHF net speculative short position increased.
The net short speculative EUR position decreased again but this time the change was driven both by adding to long contracts as well as more defensive
exiting of short contracts. However, the change was surprisingly small given the pronounced move higher in EUR/USD. Probably the move higher in spot
since after the reporting period has been fueled by additional scaling back on short contracts.
Short GBP contracts were exited. As cable has not fallen from the highs traded when those short contracts were added, the pullback in speculative
positioning does not seem overly surprising.
Speculators are yet longer in CAD but price action in USD/CAD is not really there.
AUD and NZD both show slightly higher net long speculative positions but the positive sentiment is getting softer as the rate of change is slowing and as,
especially for the AUD, both long and short contracts were reduced (while when the positive sentiment is really strong, increases in net positions are driven
by the active action of adding long contracts).
USD did not seem to play a key role during the recent reporting week but due to the general effect of positional changes in other currencies, a modest
decrease in the aggregate in the net speculative long dollar position has occurred.
Click here to read the full report: Speculative Position 02.27.12
SEB tech team