EUR/USD has cleared the 1.3322 resistance and at this point we must allow for a further rally near term towards the top of its 6 month down channel at 1.3520 currently. The 50% retracement at 1.3435 (of the sell off from the October high) is likely to offer some interim resistance en route. Dips will find near term support offered by the 20 day ma at 1.3190, but only below the 1.3065 support line will upside pressure alleviate. This move higher is viewed as a deeper corrective phase within an overall bear trend.
GBP/USD held the 1.5645 support yesterday, this was last weeks low. The rebound from here looks like it has further to go, but should find interim resistance at 1.5765/1.5815. Failure here will leave the market re-focussed on the 1.5645 support. We look for this to be eroded for losses to 1.5617 (55 day ma) and then 1.5580, the 50% retracement. Slightly longer term, a break below 1.5580 is needed to trigger a move down to sub 1.5300 (favoured).
USD/CHF has eroded the .9080/66 support. This was the February 2012 low, the November low and 38.2% retracement of the move seen from October 2011. The failure here is expected to initiate a slide to 0.8960, the 61.8% retracement of the move up from October 2011.Ideally we would like to see this hold the downside and provoke reversal. However yesterdays trade does look directional and we must allow for losses to .8788/69, the 78.6% retracement and 200 day ma. Key short term resistance is the 0.9311/31 pivot (October high, November high and the 55 day ma) ahead of here lies the short term channel at .9225.Immediate resistance is the previous support at .9066/88.
USD/JPY is sitting just below 80.41, the 50% retracement of the move seen in 2011, this is now exposed. It remains immediately bid above the Ichimuko cloud support on the hourly chart (this offers support at 80.17/79.97) and the overnight low at 79.85. Longer term we are bullish and have a base measurement to 83.80 (this is our 3 month target) with resistance at 82.80 (Fibo) en route. Please note this is our minimum upside target. In the short term, the market remains directly bid above 78.29/56 (see daily chart) and we have a confirmed buy signal on the daily DMI.
AUD/USD while we acknowledge that the market bounced higher yesterday and has been stronger than we would have liked, it has not dislodged any resistance of note and we continue to view the market as toppish. Key support the 2 month uptrend at 1.0544 and a break below here is required to negate the upmove. We look for rallies to now struggle 1.0763/1.0800. We are biased toward failure here, we note the daily RSI and slow stochastics remain negative. Only above 1.0845 will put resistance at 1.1030/80 back on the cards.
EUR/JPY has eroded the 106.80 target and the 107.15 200 day ma, and we would allow for further gains to 108.46, the 78.6% retracement of the move down from the October spike and the 109.64, the 55 week ma. We note that the cloud support on the 60 minute chart offers support at 106.17/105.85 and we will assume while above here the market is directly bid intraday. Key support remains trend line support at 102.38 and while above here we will maintain a bullish bias. Above at 109.64 targets 111.32/57 (the intervention high).
EUR/GBP has recently broken above key resistance and based near term, using this base (.8400-.8220) as an approximate measurement higher implies a move towards the 0.8552/38.2% retracement of the move down from the June peak and then the 200 day ma at .8632. This has clearly altered the chart picture short term as we must allow for higher prices. Dips lower should now find previous resistance offers support at 0.8400 and should remain contained by 0.8370, the 50% retracement of the last leg higher.
EasyForexNews Research Team