European FX Market Analysis

EUR/USD – Recovery extended to $1.27714 in early Europe before demand met stronger supply from a UK name. Rate has pulled back but seen meeting will buyers in the area between $1.2750/40 which is currently keeping it buoyed.

AUD/USD – Backed off from recent highs of $1.0433 amid talk that an Asian sovereign was noted selling near the highs. The same name also touted as a buyer of USD/CAD off the recent lows around C$1.0119. AUD however is currently holding above the 200 day MA at $.0410 and receiving support from an ever falling EUR/AUD that has just plotted a new all time low of A$1.2235. AUD trades $1.0421/23.

USD/CAD – Traders note Asian sovereign demand interest seen in the pair, with rate currently trading around C$1.0132 and off earlier lows at C$1.0119. Decent demand seen in place between C$1.0120/00 with talk of decent sized stops placed on a break of C$1.0090.

EUR/SEK – Traders note that there has been some heavy selling this morning in the move from Sek8.8475 to Sek8.8240 with some suggesting that the influence for this seen from a possible cross legged trade linked to UK DS Smith agreeing to buy the packaging operations of Sweden’s Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget (SCA) for about E1.6 billion euros. Corresponding moves seen in EUR/GBP.

EUR/PLN – The cross opened at Pln4.3840 and slipped to Pln4.3768 on EUR/USD gains, before bouncing to opening levels in current dealings. Strong support seen at Pln4.3700/90 (Pln4.3690 – 14 Nov 11 low), a break opens Pln4.3370/60 (Pln4.3360 – 8 Nov 11 low). Reported offers at Pln4.4000/20, more at Pln4.4320/30 (Pln4.4325 – 13 Jan high)

EUR/HUF – All eyes on the European Comission today, who are expected to issue a decision on the legality of certain reforms intorduced by Hungary’s government. The EU and IMF have already stated that they will not extend financial aid unless the government in Budapest can guarantee the independance of the Central Bank. If Hungary fails to give any indications it intends to change the disputed laws and the EU make the expected threat of leagal action, analysts are predicting a sharp fall in the forint and a spike in bond markets. The currency pair opened in Europe around Huf310.60 and lifted to Huf311.08 on local order flow, amid quiet markets. Support on the downside seen at Huf309.20/00
(Huf309.17 – 16 Jan low), ahead of Huf307.00/90 (Huf306.90 – 13 Jan low). Reported offers at Huf313.00/20, a break opens Huf315.60/70.

EUR/CZK: The currency pair opened the European session around Czk25.575 and eased to Czk25.531 on early EUR/USD gains, rate ran into demand and lifted to Czk25.570 in current dealings. Demand seen into Czk25.475, a break opens Czk25.344 (12 Jan low). Reported offers on the topside at Czk25.700 and Czk25.750, stronger behind at Czk25.905.

 

EasyForexNews Research Team