EUR/USD keeps for the time being a MT weak study with still risk towards critical 1.3046/1.3146 support area initially & then 1.26/1.28 area. Current slight break below 1.3342 (61.8%) is of course rekindling such a scenario even if the possible rising “C of ABC” scenario towards ST 38.2% (1.3608) remains possible. However, a ST rebound above 1.3441/49 (daily ST falling wedge res+61.8%) is at least needed to rekindle it.
On a MT basis, the renewed down move from 1.4255/1.4401 (MT 61.8% & MT rising wedge support) area & the move back below 1.3835 (LT falling wedge resistance) increased the risk to have only seen in October a classic technical pullback move on this key resistance area & to be now resuming the previous MT falling bias for move towards critical 1.3046/1.3146 (MT 61.8% & last low) initially & on a breakout then towards 1.26/1.28 area to develop a possible falling MT wave “C of ABC” scenario. The current slight break below 1.3342 (ST 61.8%) is of course slightly rekindling this bearish scenario with risk initially on 1.3212 low.
However, such a move could be at least delayed now if it manages to move back above this 1.3342 (61.8%) & break then above 1.3441/49 (daily ST falling wedge res+61.8%) to develop a ST technical correction in “C of ABC” towards 1.3608 (ST 38.2%) area initially. 1.3342 is ST pivot & 1.3441/49 is first ST key resistance.
On an intraday basis, Renewed slight break below ST critical 1.3342 (ST 61.8%) is of course weak, reopening the way down towards 1.3212 low initially within intraday falling wedge within which tone will remain weak mainly if we stay below 1.3342. However, a ST technical rebound is still possible (C of ABC) but we need to break initially above small ST falling wedge resistance (now 1.3418) & then ST key 1.3441/49 (61.8%+daily falling wedge res) to
strengthen such a ST bottoming/up scenario towards 1.3553 (potential wave “A” top) initially & then ST 38.2% (1.3608) area which is also wave “C” theoretical target if wave “C”=wave “A”.
Resistances
1.3553
1.3418/41/49
1.3342
Supports
1.3156
1.3212
1.3046/1.3146
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BNP Paribas
Corporate & Investment Banking