FX Techtonics Daily – EUR/USD: ST risk to the downside, but limited potential

EUR/USD
We expect the mid-July low of 1.3835, or even the 1.4015/55 support zone, to contain any down-move until the EUR/USD breaks above the tentative declining resistance line, which comes at 1.4455 today, and returns to the 1.4520/35 region.

EUR/JPY
EUR/JPY may test the lower end of the MT declining channel, which stands at 107.45 today, before attempting to enter a lasting recovery towards last week’s high of 114.20.

USD/JPY
A break below the 76.25/30 support area, which has come under pressure, would argue for a decline to at least the lower end of the tentative declining channel which comes at 75.20 this week (-0.31/week).

GBP/USD
The 1.6340 resistance level should contain any extension of yesterday’s corrective bounce on 1.6110 and force the GBP/USD to head south again, with a target at 1.5970/1.6005.

USD/CAD
The 0.9640/45 support area, or maybe 0.9740, should contain any down-move move until the USD/CAD returns to Tuesday’s high of 1.0010.

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Societe Generale
Research & Analytics