Tag Archives: USD/CHF
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has sold off towards the 1.2624 January low. We would expect to see some profit taking here ahead of a renewed stab lower to the 1.20 region. We note on the 240 minute chart a loss of downside momentum and we would allow for a small corrective rebound.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Worst-case eurozone scenario a little less likely
EUR USD (1.2830) Several surveys of investor expectations seem to indicate that many increasingly see at least one country exiting the eurozone in the next 12 months. Of course last week’s post-election impasse in Greece is one of the factors that have caused probability estimates to tick upwards.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Why didn’t the euro fall sooner?
EUR USD (1.2890) Surveys conducted among the Greek population since the election consistently show that at least 75 percent still want their country to stay in the eurozone. However, there are also several surveys that show that a considerable percentage of voters continue to support the left radicals who completely denounce the austerity programme and […]
Daily FX Technical Strategy – USD benefits from global uncertainty
The dollar is on a roll. Broad based signs of USD strength point to further material gains in the coming months. AUD/USD posted the low close that we were hoping to see last Fri implying the uptrend of the previous three years is over.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD The daily RSI is trading at oversold levels not seen since December which leads us to believe that EUR/USD will manage to heave itself back up towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s advance at 1.2954 in the days ahead.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The euro begins to reflect popular scepticism
EUR USD (1.2920) European Commission’s offer of a conditional delay of Spain’s 2013 deficit target if Madrid accepts new scrutiny about its plan to restructure banks and ensure more say in monitoring regional governments, reflects a compromising stance following the anti-austerity backlash that the eurozone elections produced.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: AUD/USD lift shaft
Up the escalator, down the lift shaft typically describes AUD/USD price action: downtrends tend to be short sharp brutal moves compared to uptrends. We highlight this behaviour because AUD/USD is on the cusp of throwing out several major bearish signals and the close tonight could very likely be a negative catalyst for long-term trend followers. […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD continues to trade below the 61.8% retracement of the move seen this year and remains under pressure. Corrective rebounds should remain tepid – daily technical indicators remain negative and our target remains the 1.2624 January low.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The euro aspires to a transfer union
EUR USD (1.2945) Fifty-seven percent of 1253 analysts and traders polled in a Bloomberg survey believe one country will exit eurozone by the end of the year. We reckon that more than anything else what the poll really implies is that in the absence of an explicit monetary transfer mechanism, the union is likely to […]
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Spanish woes impact euro
In the current environment of risk aversion, where global equity indices from the S&P 500 to the Shanghai Composite are correcting lower, our focus is drawn to Spain. The Spanish IBEX index is trading at levels not seen since 2009 and the 10-year benchmark yield is back above 6%. This has forced the spread against […]
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has eroded the 61.8% retracement of the move seen this year so far at 1.2954 and dropped into 4 month lows. The resistance above 1.3081 is prolific and the 5 and 8 month downtrends at 1.3233/50 offer tough resistance for the market.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The pro-growth strategy has yet to emerge
EUR USD (1.2975) If the recovery of markets across all asset classes is any indication then the change of guard in France seems to have been accepted as a precursor to a non-confrontational Franco-German relationship.