Tag Archives: SEK
SEK FI & FX Strategy – Riksbank conclusions
In line with the consensus, the bank decided to leave the repo unchanged at 0.75%. The rate path, however, was revised lower and the near-term easing bias increased to
Sweden: Services PMI falls back
The service sector PMI in March came in at 53.5, which was clearly lower than in February but still points to a decent growth in the sector.
Scandi markets ahead: PMI week and divergent monetary policy between Norway and Sweden even more evident
Will the Riksbank cut rates in April or not? It cannot be excluded, but we believe thechance of a rate cut in July is higher. What could prove decisive is next week’sMarch PMI figures.
Sweden: Retail sales – positive trend extended
Retail sales have grown at a decent pace in recent months. In February, sales rose by 0.4% over the month and by 2.5% over the year, which was close to expectations.
Finding Value in FX Carry
Global FX carry trades, where one buys the highest interest rate currencies and sells thelowest interest rate currencies across G10 and EM, have had a torrid time since 2008.
Sweden: Exports are slowly picking up
February trade figures came in pretty much in line with our expectations. In value terms, both exports and imports increased by 2% over the year.
Sweden: Good start of the year
The monthly indicator of household consumption in January rose by 1.0% over the month and by 0.9% over the year.* This was higher than our forecast and also stronger than the previously released figures for retail sales.
Sweden: Great Domestic Product
Swedish GDP Q4 beats all expectation with positive surprises from both exports and private consumption. Inventories lifted y-o-y GDP growth by a full 1.5% point,
Where to go loco
It’s a truism that all politics are local, but for financial markets globaldevelopments periodically hog centre stage. A clear example was the run-up toFed tapering, which we are now over.
Swedish CPI lower than forecast
• Clearly weaker than expected. Seems to be a rather broad downturn. Food prices lower than we expected.
Sweden: Labour market – weak start of the year not a new trend
Today’s labour market figures from the LFS came in weaker than expected. In January, unemployment edged up to 8.2 % (seasonally adjusted), from 8.0% in December. Forecasts stood at 7.9%.
The Global Macro Pulse
In FX, AUDUSD was the main mover, dropping about 1% to 0.894 in response to weaker-than-expected employment data. EURUSD recouped some of its overnight losses to rise to 1.3615 while USDJPY fell