This suggests a good start of the year. The indicator is important and it may be the most reliable indicator for GDP. So today’s figures bode well for continued growth in Q1. We also see household consumption to accelerate further in 2014. Favorable financial conditions in the household sector, such as solid income growth, low inflation and mortgage rates, will continue to support spending in 2014.
Elsewhere, production in business sector rose in January, largely in line with manufacturing and private services figures released earlier this week. The indicator came in slightly stronger than we forecast due to high activity in the construction sector. The monthly indicator provided, however, no value in predicting Q4 GDP.
Details, January
Consumption indicator, s.a. m/m: 1.0% (Nordea 0.3%, prior -1.1%, rev. from -0.9%)
Consumption indicator, w.d.a. y/y: 0.9% (Nordea -0.2%, prior unrevised at -0.1%
Business sector production, s.a. m/m: 0.9% (Nordea 0.7%, prior -1.1%, rev. from -1.4%)
Business sector production, w.d.a. y/y: 1.3% (Nordea 0.8%, prior unrevised -0.5%)
*Statistics Sweden’s indicator for household consumption is based on retail sales, consumption of services, car sales, use of energy, housing etc. Consumption abroad is not included.
Nordea