Tag Archives: NZD
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
* Politicians could slow pace of EUR recovery Multi month we like EUR lower on the crosses too (EURAUD,EURGBP, EURJPY) given declining yield advantage but believe that on a 4-6 week view, the EUR could be prone to upside risks.
European FX Daily
* RBA Statement of Monetary Policy dovish in tone * Chinese export and credit growth disappoint in July * Singapore GDP weaker than expected * Canadian employment likely weak
FX Daily: Fundamental and technical support for carry
* On a technical level carry looks attractive as our Style Allocation Model (SAM) indentifies a “risk on” environment and carry needs to catch up with the equity market.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe
Dovish BoE inflation report could put some pressure on GBP Sterling’s recent underperformance may have been stabilised by Tuesday’s slightly better-than-expected industrial production data, but today’s key event – the BoE Inflation Report – could lead to some renewed weakness.
CFTC: Positive dollar sentiment weakens further
The weekly data from the US CFTC covering the week ending July 31 showed another big reduction in the aggregate net long dollar position held by hedge funds and other large speculators in IMM currency futures.
Asia today: Murmurings of more China stimulus? But risk slumbers
Today’s Asian session started favourably, with equity markets opening higher and risk currencies holding onto gains made last night, particularly versus the US dollar. However, with no fresh news or data to influence there was a lack of conviction to push risk higher.
Australia and New Zealand Weekly: AU bonds outperform, but can they hold their gains?
AU government bonds have been the stellar performer over H1, with a weakening in the global industrial outlook and safe haven flows the key drivers. Given our near-term global risk view, we believe the tactical game plan for the AU market should be to ‘buy dips.
Speculative Positions
Normalization of previous risk-off positioning the major theme Summary of the non-commercial (“speculative”) accounts in the CoT report (June 27 – July 3)
Asia today: AUD higher again after stronger retail sales data
AUD pushed higher across the board again Wednesday after retail sales and purchasing manager data came in firm, though the Aussie wasn’t aggressively higher given bank bill yields only rose 2 BP.
CFTC: Dollar long extended ahead of Fridays violent price action
The latest data from the CFTC covering the week ending June 26 showed that speculative traders in IMM currency futures increased their aggregate long dollar position by 20 percent to USD 27 billion.
Australia and New Zealand Weekly: The carbon tax and inflation
The carbon tax starts on 1 July and should add 0.7pp to the CPI. This matches RBA and Government forecasts, although we estimate a larger 0.5pp boost to underlying inflation. The risk is that the boost to the CPI is larger, although with some delay.
Asia today: Risk currencies a tad higher in a slow Asian session
Another quiet, tight-ranged Asian session as the EU summit looms ever closer. The start of the session saw the only data point of the day – New Zealand’s trade data for May.