Normalization of previous risk-off positioning the major theme
Summary of the non-commercial (“speculative”) accounts in the CoT report (June 27 – July 3)
*Judging by the positioning changes the main driver during the latest reporting period (27 June – 3 July) was a more positive risk sentiment.
* The net long positions in the safe haven currencies USD and JPY decreased while the net positions in the high beta currencies AUD and NZD increased (taking AUD from a net short to a net long position). Net short EUR decreased but only slightly (as both long and short contracts were reduced).
* Generally the positioning is reflecting a less extreme market situation as no currency’s position is what we would deem as extreme.
* Speculative currency positioning decreased as four out of seven currencies had lower volume (and only two larger) indicating that speculators are more uncertain about the future and reluctant to take on more currency risk at the moment.
* EUR at -146,177 (22nd percentile) vs. previous -159,880 (14th percentile)
* USD at 148,369 (88th percentile) vs. previous 172,814 (92nd percentile)
Click here to read the full report: Speculative Position 20120710
SEB tech team