Tag Archives: NOK
Where to go loco
It’s a truism that all politics are local, but for financial markets globaldevelopments periodically hog centre stage. A clear example was the run-up toFed tapering, which we are now over.
Norway: Stronger GDP growth than expected
• Mainland GDP above our forecast and also somewhat on the strong side to Norges Bank and consensus
Norwegian GDP to support the NOK
In the UK the event of the week will be today’s Bank of England Inflation Report (IR). The MPC has indicated that the forward guidance framework will be reviewed in the IR as unemployment has come down rapidly to
High inflation – probably temporary
• Janury core inflation was 0.3% points above Norges Bank • Enough to have a significant impact on key rates, if it last…
Norway: Stronger labour market, but weaker consumption
• Registered unemployment somewhat stronger, but.. • ..weak retail sales • In sum neutral
Norway: Labour market – weaker than expected
• LFS unemployment increased • But the trend is sideways • No need to change view on Norges Bank
Norway: Lower inflation than expected
• Core inflation lower than forecasted • 0.3% points below Norges Bank • Enough to have an impact on interest rates – if the gap last
Retail sales still weak
Despite the 0,5 % m/m rebound in retail sales in November development is still weak Q4 growth is so far below Q3, and clearly on the downside to Norges Bank’s forecast
Norway: House prices not that weak in December
House prices dropped in December, as they normally do, but seasonally adjusted prices were up 0.2% m/m. That was a positive surprise after several months with price drops around 1.0% m/m.
Norway: Another increase in registered unemployment
• Registered unemployment increased again • But slightly less than expected • Figure no big surprise to Norges Bank
Norway: Somewhat higher – in line with Norges Bank
Somewhat higher core inflation – in line with Norges Bank’s view Inflation will rise further due to NOK weakness
The Global Macro Pulse
EURUSD rallied further in Asia to 1.3756 while AUDUSD and USDJPY were flat at 0.9105 and 103.28, respectively. In EM Asia FX, the MYR has outperformed, appreciating to 3.2005 to the dollar while USDPHP rose to 44.280,