Tag Archives: NOK
Norway: Labour market – still sideways trend
• LFS unemployment fell to 3.3% • But the trend is sideways • Still somewhat on the strong side to Norges Bank
The Global Macro Pulse
USDJPY has continued to edged higher to 101.57 after failing to break meaningfully below 101.20 overnight. The AUD remained under pressure, dipping below 0.93,
Core inflation above consensus and Norges Bank
• April core inflation at 2.5% above consensus, but below our forecast • 0.2% points above Norges Bank forecast , but temporary Easter effect pulled up
NOK: Stronger labour market
• Registered unemployment came in at 2.8% below forecast at 2.9% • Clearly on the strong side to Norges Bank • But the timing of Easter can explain the drop
Norges Bank: On hold still main message
• No rate cut • No significant change in view • But if anything a slightly more positive tone
Westpac: What To Buy & What To Sell This Week?
Westpac G10 FX model portfolio opens a decent long USD exposure for the week ahead, triggered by a long USD signal from its US surprise index model.
Prewarning Norway: No further lift in core inflation
• Core inflation slightly on the downside to Norges Bank • Weaker NOK if we are right
Norway: Retail sales still point to weak consumption growth
Retail sales were stronger than expected, but does not change our view of weak growth in consumption
Finding Value in FX Carry
Global FX carry trades, where one buys the highest interest rate currencies and sells thelowest interest rate currencies across G10 and EM, have had a torrid time since 2008.
A mixed bag heading into Norges
Norges Bank is widely expected to leave not only rates unchanged at 1.50% at the meeting tomorrow, but also its rate path. Indeed, with CPI, unemployment and GDP growth,
Higher unemployment
• LFS unemployment 3.6% in December slightly above forecast • Not an important indicator for Norges Bank- but if anything in line with its view