Tag Archives: EUR/JPY
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Fed will remain pro-stimulus
EUR USD (1.3230) A warning by New York Fed President William Dudley yesterday that the recent US economic recovery, although gaining speed could just as easily stall, was a reality check for the markets.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD continued to rally yesterday, the near term rally is viewed as corrective, but we would allow for a return to the 1.3291/1.3325 region (9th February high), however we would again expect that to provoke failure.
Risk appetite index is back in the risk-neutral zone
The SEB Risk appetite index (RAI) * RAI moved back into it’s the risk-neutral zone after being in the risk-aversion zone almost all the time since Aug 2011. Since RAI have been correlated with the OECD leading indicator (which is lagging two months) this is a positive sign for the economic recovery going forward.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The bond market finally believes in green shoots
EUR USD (1.3170) Although US data had started surprising to the upside in the last quarter, it is the rise in US Treasury yields over the last few days that seems to be finally convincing the sceptics that the US ‘green shoots’ might be here to stay.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD on Friday saw a strong rebound from support at 1.3000. This has been stronger than we thought, but is viewed as a correction only. It is possible that this rebound will return to the 1.3291/1.3325 region, however we would again expect that to provoke failure.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: JPY juggernaut still turning
Yesterday was a day of consolidation in FX markets and it passed without producing evidence of material change. Consequently, we are sticking with recent themes: USD strength, JPY weakness and NOK strength.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: QE debate is artificial
EUR USD (1.3085) Yesterday’s correction across the asset classes and particularly in the US treasuries market has once again persuaded some economists to dwell on the prospects of QE by the Fed.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD remains on the defensive., it has recently eroded the top of cloud support, the 55 day moving average and the 50% retracement support at 1.3055. It is currently sitting on support at 1.3000.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: US yield rise lends further USD support
Having broken out of well-established ranges earlier in the week, US yields are surging higher across the curve. Into next week, we suspect the pace of the move will slow given approaching stronger support but for the time being, the dollar is responding.
Daily FX Technical Strategy: Cross focus as USD consolidates
As the dollar unwinds intraday overbought signals at the start of the week, crosses have drifted off the sidelines but without suggesting a consistent story. EUR/GBP rallied sharply but this move must be kept in context of the downtrend of the last 10 months.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has held the initial test of the 55 day moving average, this is located at 1.3084. Rebounds are expected to remain tepid and we look for the Euro to remain under pressure and continue to regard the recent high at 1.3487 as an interim peak.
FX Market Technical Research
EUR/USD has eroded the 2 month uptrend support, this has yet to generate much of a sell off, and the market is finding some support from the top of cloud at 1.3096. This is expected to be eroded, technical indicators are negative – the daily RSI is breaking down and the daily DMI has a […]