Tag Archives: ECB
UK MPC expands QE by £75bn
The Monetary Policy Committee today announced a £75bn expansion of its asset purchase programme. Although this was counter to the consensus (and our own) forecast of unchanged policy this month, the surprise was more in relation to timing as a move to expand QE within the next few months was widely expected (we had expected […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 06 October 2011
Signs of progress in Europe? Better sentiment, lower volatility A less volatile session saw an improvement in sentiment – or was it the other way around? – as headlines suggest efforts are being made to address the Eurozone slide. The IMF’s Borges made significant and positive comments on the possibility of the Fund extending its […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: New reference points forget lessons of the past
EUR/USD (1.3335) Two new market reference points have come to the surface this week. The first concerns the ECB rate decision where, since the last rate-setting meeting, traders have been contemplating a rate cut. As much as 40bp were priced in as recently as last week.
David Bloom: Why I’m bullish
But just for today, tomorrow normal service resumes. Why….firstly market sentiment seems to have turned. The market (only equities matter) chose to ignore the Italian downgrade which could have easily fed the bear. The Bernanke “we stand ready to act” was taken as bull food.
What matters today (Asia edition)
Developed macro 1. ECB meeting on Thursday is the obvious focal point of another eventful week in the Eurozone. Greece still in the spotlight, but no decision expected at today’s Eurogroup meeting. 2. Datawise, the final releases of Eurozone PMI indices today should remain consistent with economic weakness in the periphery. 3. The US ISM […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 30 September 2011
Markets remain volatile but directionless; NZD hit by downgrades: Risk appetite continues to ebb and flow with headlines of progress and setbacks on Europe. US equities recovered from an early slide to close on a positive note, but futures have turned lower again since; the moves are mirrored by FX markets, which continue to see […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Euro maintains optimistic undercurrent, for now
EUR/USD (1.3615) Eurozone policymakers seem to have been rather dismissive of discussions about the transformation of the EFSF into a two-trillion-euro-heavy leveraged bailout vehicle. German finance minister, Schauble, has been notably critical and Bundesbank president, Jens Weidmann, has also indicated that the ECB would not play a role, a stance that reportedly has the full […]
HSBC FI – EFSF discussion continues, Italian
ECB comments on increasing size of EFSF A range of numbers have been mentioned on the newswires, with some suggesting an increase to EUR2-3tn but without details of what this involves it is difficult to forecast the impact. It is not clear how the EFSF would be leveraged and, furthermore, whether the figures reflect the […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: Europe – 26 September 2011
Friday optimism once again gives way to disappointment FX markets showed a little more stability on Friday, but once again this has proven temporary. Reports that EU officials were contemplating bringing forward the creation of the ESM (successor to the EFSF) to 2012, and that it would have capital of EUR500bn, helped drive optimism that […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Euro traders seem to favour the radical plan
EUR/USD (1.3405) Eurozone leaders were in the unusual situation of not having to dwell on the problems of other nations at the annual IMF meeting in Washington; they had to discuss their own.
EUR/USD forecast change: The peripheral crisis is likely to deepen
EUR/USD forecast change: The peripheral crisis is likely to deepen The problems in the euro area have deteriorated significantly and are likely to worsen further before stabilising. Heightened risk, coupled with more dovish language coming from the ECB and the SNB floor, has made a lower EUR/USD likely in the short run. We are therefore […]
FX DAILY STRATEGIST: US – 20 Sept 2011
USD retraces lower and equities recover in Europe, but sentiment still fluid: The dollar softened in the European session with the move being linked to selling by Asian accounts. Equities have rallied however sentiment remains fluid. Further negative headlines surrounding the European banking sector could see liquidity tensions exacerbate.