Tag Archives: ECB
FX Markets Today – National Australia Bank
At 1.3525 and 1.0150, respectively, both the EUR and AUD are around a cent above yesterday’s lows (a five-week low in the case of the single-currency).
As bond market contagion spreads across Europe, the euro is in danger
Stops were broken in EUR/USD once 1.35 broke in the middle of the night. That’s a repeat of what happened 24 hours earlier as we made our way through 1.36. The euro’s resilience in the face of the crisis enveloping Europe, is in danger of collapsing. Technically, the break of 1.3485 opens the way for […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: The ECB cannot be taken out of the loop
EUR/USD (1.3600) Friday’s relief rally induced by the formation of Italy’s technocratic government proved short-lived. As the 6.29% yield on Monday’s auction of Italian five year bonds shows, investors perceive that even with a new government, the political playing field might not have changed enough to push through austerity reforms and contain near-term contagion.
FX Daily Strategist: Europe London: 14 November 2011
Did Happy Friday pre-empt a Happy Monday? On Thursday we noted the risk of a series of fortunate evidence in Italy that could conspire to produce a decent risk rally on Monday – the Senate and lower house passage of the austerity/reform bill, the resignation of Silvio Berlusconi, an announcement that Mario Monti has been […]
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Will US be another headwind for global growth?
EUR/USD (1.3760) The formation of technocratic governments in Italy and Greece, and the improved prospect of the financial stability law being passed in Italy have more or less given the impression to the market that near-term the European crisis may still be contained.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: How to stop the vicious cycle?
EUR/USD (1.3545) Scores of economic commentators including Krugman, Nouriel and Wolf are thinking aloud about what the latter calls the ‘unthinkable’: the break-up of the eurozone.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Italy’s perception problem
EUR/USD (1.3545) The above seven per cent yields on the Italian 10 year bonds are essentially being seen as the main gauge by the markets for the eurozone crisis.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Economics trumps public relations at the ECB
EUR/USD (1.3815) Forecasters largely failed to predict an ECB rate cut yesterday, but not for economic reasons.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Euro faces fresh headwinds
EUR/USD (1.3815) The OECD drastically downgraded its growth expectations for the eurozone in 2011, to 0.3% from the May 2% projection. By any definition, this assessment reflects a significant increase in downside risks to growth and also represents a negative indictment of the austerity measures imposed so far.
The bears are back in town
Mid-day update is attached. Until BTP yields stabilize (6.2% for 10s now despite ECB being in, and next auction isn’t until November 14!) the bears have the upper hand.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Euro counts down to EU summit
EUR/USD (1.3725) Leveraging the EFSF to stem debt contagion involves potential political and economic costs which are the point of contention at the EU weekend summit. While France supports the idea of turning EFSF into a bank that could tap the ECB, Germany endorses enabling the EFSF to insure a part of peripheral euro debt.
Behavioral Finance: Daily Forex Outlook: Trichet sets stage for Draghi rate cut
EUR/USD (1.3430) Expectations of an immediate ECB rate cut were trimmed in the hours that preceded yesterday’s rate-setting meeting. As suspected, traders considered any inaction as negative for growth and, by extension, negative for the euro.