Trade Ideas
FX Strategist – Weekly update: cross signals
· The euro has weakened on net against all G10 and major EM currencies in the first weeks of the new year. This broad weakening has been a function of ECB easing, which has weighed on the euro, and stronger global data, which have boosted risk-sensitive currencies broadly. The key question for currency market participants […]
USD/CHF IDEA
Looking for EURUSD lower ideas? -> Buy USDCHF upside? USDCHF risk reversal is under EURUSD -> and you’re getting to own the ‘SNB raise floor’ option
EURUSD traded through key support level of 1.3050/45
– G10 currencies in tight ranges, EURUSD broke key support overnight – Asian currencies weaker vs the USD, equities mixed – FOMC kept policy unchanged – Italy to auction 5-year papers, euro area IP likely flat – Norges Bank to remain on hold with risk of 25bp cut – We recommend selling 1yr in 1yr […]
Morgan Stanley FX: FX Daily Trading Recommendations
Optimism short-lived. Any optimism generated by the agreement between Merkel and Sarkozy on a common proposal regarding the future fiscal governance of the eurozone ahead of the EU Summit appears to have been quickly reversed by the credit rating warnings for the AAA members of Europe by S&P.
Trade Recommendation: Sell GBP/USD for a decline to 1.5100
The latest recovery is seen as an intermediate one only within a broader downtrend, expected to be resumed shortly GBP/USD daily chart:
FX WEEKLY STRATEGY: Euro Bears Forced into Hibernation
G10 Themes: Oil Implications for FX: – Fundamentals, technical picture, and Fed policy supportive for oil – The rebound in oil prices should support AUD, CAD, and NOK – Correlations between AUD, CAD, NOK and oil remain strong
Trade Recommendation: Sell EUR/USD for a minimum decline to 1.2600
The current recovery is seen as an intermediate one only within a broader downtrend, expected to be resumed shortly EUR/USD weekly chart:
FX Strategist – Weekly Update: revisiting the yen – please recycle
With most currency pairs in limbo awaiting the results of the weekend summit in Europe, we turn our attention to the JPY, which has been somewhat sidelined in recent weeks.
Asia Strategy Focus: Sell USDSGD at 1.31, MAS not in crisis mode and won’t move to neutral mode
We recommend selling USDSGD at 1.31 with a take profit target of 1.264 and stop loss at 1.323. We look for this trade recommendation to materialise over the next few weeks. USDSGD will fall due to our counter-consensus view on this weeks’ MAS monetary policy meeting and potential upside surprises to macro data releases in […]
Spotlight/Trade Idea: Sell EUR/GBP for .8300
‘Double top’ completion signals beginning of next leg lower through .8528/.8456 to .8300. Only back above .8809 would ease bearish risk. A recovery above .8844/87 resistance zone is required to see a better tone resurface, for a re-test of .9085.
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: A new correction low through key 1.3428/10 area reinforces bearish “outside” Wednesday. Next downside target is 1.3305 with late Q3 risk to 1.3050 AUD/USD: Plunge through critical .9933/27 for a more important top for .9574/37
Technical Analysis – FX Daily Majors
Today’s highlights: EUR/USD: Continued failure at the 1.4518/00 resistance zone keeps the bias lower through 1.4328 trend support to 1.4259 and then 1.4150 GBP/USD: Market reverts back to intermediate-term trendline support placed at 1.6260. A break through here signals downside continuation to 1.6110/01